Author: admin

We have had sandy skies that stop us from traveling and make it unpleasant to run.  In general, there is not much to do around here, so I have had time on my hands to think.  I have been thinking about change 

I think it is important to think about these sorts of “irrelevant things”.  It makes for better decisions if you have already thought through some of the boundry conditions.  Anyway, below are some thoughts.  Read them if you like.  They are not particularly about Iraq.

Below – Separating the wheat from the chaff the old fashioned way near Rawah on the Euphrates.  Some things change faster than others.

Change: Real & Imaginary

Change is constant and inevitable. Being “for change” is meaningless and childish w/o explaining what change you want & exactly how you hope to achieve it. Some people don’t understand that society is a complex system. Disturbing one thing, even a bad thing, will have unexpected consequences throughout the system.

Take a concrete example of a man dying of thirst. If you just give him as much water as he wants to drink, you probably will kill him. His body can process about a liter, maybe little more, every hour, no more. You can make changes but not on your timetable. And the most direct and “obvious” action may not be the most appropriate.

The general rules are that abrupt changes create strong reactions. There are many things you cannot have, at least at the same time, and the time lags are important in any decision.
Good leaders in our modern complex systems are catalysts for change.  I say catalysts because that is often the best way for government to effect change. It allows the people themselves to decide the details and do the actual innovating. The nation and the state are not the same things. Conservatives recognize that most effective and constructive change comes from citizens, scientists and entrepreneurs, less often from command and control of politicians and bureaucrats (like me – good cautionary tale).

Politicians outline tidy programs that purport to create comprehensive and well-planned solutions. The untidy fact that they often choose to ignore is that when people are free to pursue happiness the usually do not want the same things the planners think they should.

The private sector is the source of almost all innovations. Here I have to point to the difference between innovation and basic research which often depends on government resources and rightfully so. Basic research creates options. Innovation involves taking those options and packaging or developing them into something people want. The process is not automatic. There are many examples of societies possessing some great knowledge and never creating the innovations that put it to practical use.

(Of course government can innovate within government when there is a similar competitive environment for those sorts of ideas. In the ancient world, we had Greek city states, with their various mixes of democracy, oligarchy, monarchy and tyranny. In our times, U.S. states are good examples.The ancient Romans had the basics of things like steam engines, engineering skills and water power networks, but never made the jump to the industrialization. In the late 18th Century, the Chinese had the requisite skills to make intricate machines, but used those skills to make mechanical novelties for the Mandarins.  Whole books have been written about why the Middle East just stopped innovating about 400 years ago, after making a real promising start.  Getting innovation out of the lab, into the workshop and out in the market is not easy and it is not been the most common thing in world history.

What often seems to be the common denominator is that a powerful centralized state, w/o significant competitors, stifles innovation. Conversely, messy, contentious and competitive systems with loose connections produce innovation.

The United States has been extraordinarily innovative following this general pattern. Our states have been the laboratories of democracy. Good innovations are copied; bad ones are limited. Our free market welcomes ideas, and for most of our history people, from around the world. Foreigners often brag that their particular former citizens create so much innovation in the U.S. The interesting question is why they had to come to the U.S. to do that.

We have enjoyed this wonderful system for a long time now. Nevertheless, it is possible mess it up.

So when some politician promises change, it might be a good idea to inquire re the type of change he is proposing AND the mechanism he plans to use to achieve it. Emperors in Rome and China (as well as lots of other places) were confident in their ability to order change. As a result, not much changed in these places over the course of hundreds or thousands of years. If you were the emperor, life was okay. The guy covered in sh*t using the same basic technologies for a thousand years was probably less enthusiastic.

Change directed from the top was not the change they could believe in.

Adam Smith published the “Wealth of Nations”  in 1776. He was not so much advocating an ideal system as describing the one that was emerging in the Atlantic world. It was the beginning of the market system where diverse communities were linked by an emerging world market, where governments did believe they had the right to regulate every aspect of life and the economy, as they had in most places whenever they could since the dawn of history. For the first time in history, a large number of people came to believe that THEY owned the government rather than the other way around and an autonomous private sector was developing. It was a new paradigm, which conveniently coincided with the birth of the novus ordo seclorum that same year.

Even after 233 years, the old paradigm dies hard. It is very difficult for most people to think systemically. We are accustomed to hierarchy where somebody is in charge. In a market economy, lots of people have influence, in a state of constant change, but nobody is in charge.

We perhaps can understand it better now that we have things like Internet and Wikis. Who commands those things? I read an interesting book “The Starfish and the Spider” here the author talked about investors demanding to see the “President of the Internet”

The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclites used to say that everything flows (πάντα ρει) and graphically illustrated his point by explaining that nobody could step twice into the same river. Flowing water is an excellent way to understand change, the time it takes and the unexpected consequences of making changes. You shore up one bank with rocks, only to find that the current undercuts someplace else. You clear a channel and find two weeks later that you have changed the course of the stream a half mile UPstream. How can that happen? The simple direct solution is usually wrong and often the person who seems most in charge isn’t. He just talks the loudest – a good lesson for those who want to mess with markets.

You CAN make changes to a system like a market, just like you can to a stream. The trick is to make haste slowly. It is usually better to remove obstacles than to try to push more of your own energy into the system with direct solutions. With this approach, you often do not get what you expected. Usually it is better.

The helicopter ride from AA takes around an hour.  You need around forty-five minutes to convoy from our base at El Dorado (formerly COP Norseman) to the Village of Nathara near Rutbah.  The ride there was bumpy and a little unpleasant.  The trip home was even worse.  I felt queasy, as did the others on the flight, but nobody got sick.  The EXO told me that should I ever actually become sick, I would be called “Chunks” from then on.  It is a powerful incentive to avoid messing up the helicopter floor.

We went there to deal with a local matter involving Marines.  This is a barren area in a barren region.  The township covers 172 square kilometers of dirt and gravel on top of a plateau around 700 meters above sea level.  The elevation and topography mean that it is not as hot here as in the WERV.    Besides that, however, it enjoys no advantages.  Houses of the village are widely spaced.  I have no idea why they do that.  There is nothing between them and the spacing makes it difficult to get around.   I suppose everybody wants his space.  Buildings are made of a kind of a plaster/mud/concrete mix with facades of stone.  Most of the houses are small, but there are lots of people per unit, since most of the local men have more than one wife and lots of children.

We shared the MRAP ride with Mayor of Rutbah and his associates.  They talked a little about the regional problems, not surprisingly sheep, water and fuel.  We hear that trinity of trouble everyplace we go.   The problems are interrelated and most likely unsolvable in the short run and beyond our control in any case.  Rain will mitigate the sheep/water conditions; fuel will require market prices.

Along the way we had to drive thorough a dry wadi to bypass a collapsed bridge.  CF had destroyed it early in the conflict as part of the shock and awe campaign.  The mayor pointed out that it was not very shocking and inspired little awe since this particular bridge was so isolated and it was relatively easy to drive around.   I don’t know much about bridges and as I looked at the supports I could not tell how easy it would be to repair the structure, but I am not sure they need a bridge there at all.  I suppose that is why there is no urgency about making repairs.  On the rare occasions when it rains, the wadi would be impassible for a couple of hours, but I bet culverts could take care of that.  

We met the local sheik and his entourage when we got to Nathara.   The imam also showed up.  We had not expected him because he was reportedly sick, but he insisted that when he heard about our visit he had to come to see his friends.  He evidently has some kind of bronchitis, but didn’t seem very sick and whatever ailed him did not interfere with his socializing.   He greeted our Chaplin very warmly and with genuine affection.  They spoke a little about Christianity, Islam and Judaism all being Abrahamic religions making all of us brothers.  This brotherhood thing is very important around here.  It is used fairly loosely and I am uncertain of its real significance.

The Marines took the opportunity to set up a local health screening.   Iraqis do not have access to much heath care.   Even the rich sheiks like to get American medical opinions.  The poorer people we served on this visit may never have seen a competent doctor.  Men brought in their sons.  A big challenge is women’s health.  That is why we brought female doctors.  This is a conservative area and women are not allowed to talk to strangers.   Colonel Malay asked the local sheik and the neighborhood imam to help get women to come.  Both promised to do what they could, cautioning however that women might choose not to come.  The imam even promised to preach re during Friday services in his mosque, but we don’t expect a high turnout.

Below is stonework in the buildings.

The imam mentioned that he personally could use a checkup and maybe some medication to help with his breathing problem.

Villagers were friendly and local leaders are supportive of the Marines, who they know protect them from insurgent attacks.  They told us that they recognize any outsiders trying to infiltrate into their area and report what they know.   Bad guys are still hanging around in the deserts and the wadis and some are crossing the borders.  The vast distances and sparse population make this a good place to hide, but the atmosphere is much improved.

Local authorities were anxious to talk to me because they knew that our ePRT had helped with wells and animal health in nearby places.  I will ask Dennis to assess potential here, but my own observations tell me that we will not be able to do very much.  A short observation of the local soils and topography did not make me sanguine re the prospects.   The land falls off in all directions from the place we were standing and a look at the map does not reveal any likely sources for an aquifer.  Dennis told me that there is indeed water in the area, but it probably not sufficient and it is 250-300 meters down.   Beyond that, the water to the west is evidently so full of dissolved salts that it is brackish and unsuitable for consumption.  The soil looks okay, seems to have a lot of iron, but it is just dry dust.  It would be wrong to say that there is not a blade of grass, but there is not much more than that.

This situation in Iraq’s western desert is emblematic of a coming world crisis in water.  It is just more acute here sooner.  In the 1940s, Iraq had a population of less than five million.  The land and its water resources could sustain a population that big.  Now there are twenty-eight million Iraqis and the population is expanding fast, fastest out here in the western deserts where there is not much to drink even in a wet year – which we see only once in every 5-7 seasons.   The population of sheep and goats has expanded along with the population.  The number of animals is well above the carrying capacity.  We can advise on improvements and make things better, but trying to find more water for more sheep as well as more people and more irrigation is not a sustainable solution in the long run in all places. 

The natural condition of this desert is to be mostly empty.   There is little here that would attract population and maybe it should stay that way.   Don’t get me wrong.  I firmly believe in making improvements.   Some parts of our AO cry out for just a little water and some smart agriculture.  Along the WERV there are Eden-like places that could supply high quality fruits and vegetables sustainably and in very large quantities.  All they need is the initial investments and better management.  The high desert we were in yesterday is not such a place.   Sometimes you need to recognize what shouldn’t be done.

All that said, we CAN help with a well and we probably will.  It will enhance Nathara’s prospects at least a short time.  Perhaps it will buy enough time for the people to make an adjustment.  No, I don’t think so easier, but hope is trumping experience.  On the plus side, one of the local leaders complained that the sheep herds were significantly smaller and that people were being forced to sell off large parts of their herds.  Of course, that is exactly what must happen.  I regret that hardship is creating this solution, but it is nonetheless the right direction. 

Below is not Iraq.  That is lake Michigan, Grant Park in South Milwaukee  Lots of water and very pretty.  I just put that in for contrast and because I like it. 

Below are the date palms at our oasis.  We have been having a little dust lately.  This picture was taken at the middle of the day.  

Iraq has 12-16 million date palms.  This is down from 30 million in the pre-Saddam times but it still makes Iraq the world’s largest producer of dates.  In Western Anbar, however, dates are not producing properly this year.   Dennis and I did a local check out in the grove in our oasis and could not find even one producing tree.  We are trying to figure out how the extent of the problem why it is happening and what Iraqis can do about it. Last year’s crop was good.  Even a partial failure of the date crop would be a big problem, so we are very interested is making accurate assessments.

In the longer term, there is a lot Iraqis can do to improve their date production.   Some of the techniques they currently use go back to Babylonian times.  They are not wrong, but could use some adjustments.  Most of these improvements would be easy and organic.   For example, planting a cover crop of ladino clover under the trees would help control water absorption and regulate humidity, as well as improve soil.  Another management fix is to plant the proper mix of male and female trees.  Date palms have gender.  Each male tree can pollinate around fifty palms. Pollen is distributed by wind so location makes a difference.  It is also useful to plant the male trees on the sunnier part of the grove.  Of course there are also the issue of irrigation scheduled to avoid salinity, better genetic quality of palms and modern use of nutrients.  Iraqi farmers need to learn some of the new techniques and often relearn some of the more traditional ones.

Dennis also did a field survey of around 10,000 donum (6,000 acres) of irrigated farmland in the Ubaydi area of the Al Qaim district.  Things have fallen apart.  The tragedy is how easy it would be to remedy the situation IF it could be properly managed.  For example, a twenty foot section of a pipe that draws water from the Euphrates is broken.  The system could be fixed for a few hundred dollars and an afternoon’s work.  Unfortunately the people farming the land don’t own it.   The owner is no where to be found.  Word is that they have left the country and the uncertainty is freezing developments.

There is also the problem of bureaucratic inertia.   In all our districts we find warehouses full of agricultural equipment and fertilizers local farmers need, but bureaucrats representing the authorities are unwilling or unable to release.   Some of it related to the problem of who should get it and the land tenure problems I mentioned above complicate every solution.  Our ePRT is trying to broken agreements, but our work is made awkward by our incomplete understanding.  I am not sure that anybody really knows the answer, but we are looking hard.

There are some things we can and have done on our own initiative.  For example, we equipped an agricultural laboratory that will help with things like soil analysis.  We are also looking to fund some solar powered water pumps and a we are helping buy some tractor for an equipment rental operation. 

In ancient times, Iraq was a phenomenally rich agricultural region.  It will be again after we all pass through this rough patch.

Some things speak for themselves; this requires a bit of explanation.  If you are squeamish, please read no further.  I don’t want to offend anyone.

The things that most affect the quality of life are often little ones and just as often things we rarely talk about.  Bathroom issues score high on both counts.   Those easily grossed out can skip the rest of my musing on this subject, but it is an important one.

We live pretty well on the FOB.  We have an excellent chow hall and bathrooms that are fully functional, if a little constrained.  This is not the case universally.  If you are at one of the smaller bases, you are lucky to have one of those plastic port-a-potties and your chow is not so good and sometimes in short supply, at least the hot main courses. Sometimes you are not lucky enough even to get these luxuries and you are reduced to MREs (boxed meals you cook yourself) and “wag bag”  toilets.

The wag bag is exactly what the name implies.  You are allowed only to go #2, since otherwise the bag would be even grosser to handle and dispose of by burning. You can see from the picture that the facilities are makeshift plywood.  It is not good.

As long as you are with me so far, I can also tell you that the local guys don’t use the sit down toilets at all.  They prefer a hole in the ground.  If you go to a local toilet, you see a porcelain hole with a couple of places to put your feet.  It might still flush, but it doesn’t work well.   We in the Western world owe a great debt to Thomas Crapper, who did so much to popularize the flush toilet we know and love.

We have a small but significant problem in our own facilities, as non-U.S. contractors prefer to squat on top of our toilets.  They break the seats and that is why you see the incongruous sign, “do not stand on toilets”  posted on the walls.

Above is just us going back to our convoy after a visit to one of the outlying posts.