Tag: public affairs

Kids come out and wave as we drive by.  When I got out and walked toward them, they started to run off.  When I sat down on the curb they came back.  We are evidently a curiosity. 

The day started out auspiciously enough.  We scheduled a full slate of appointments.  We were supposed to meet with the regional agricultural representative, visit the local bank, talk to the microfinance people and tour some local farms.  Beyond all that, we planned to go on a foot patrol through the marketplace.  I had grand hopes to spend my first Iraqi dinar at an actual Iraqi market, even if it was only to buy a can of Coke and some kabobs.

We DID mange to meet the ag official.   I did not have much business with him and only went through the greeting rituals, but my team members spent a couple of very useful hours looking over plans and proposals.  Our first bad news came when we learned we would not be able to visit the market.   An IED had gone off there a couple days before.  The Iraqi police said that it was a local matter, more a case of criminal intimidation than terrorism, but since the site was where we were going, the Marines thought it was not worth the risk. 

Instead, we went straight to the bank to meet the microfinance guys, but there was a flawed communication.  The people we were supposed to meet had gone.  The guard called them and they said they would be right back.  We were having a good into talk with the administrative manager.  He has survived some rough times.  AQI had murdered his father and his ten year old brother.  His family had to hide out in the desert for six months until AQI cleared out.  But now times were better. 

We heard shots, quite a few.  It was “celebratory fire”.  Evidently some detainees were released and their joyful relatives were celebrating the way they do around here: shooting guns into the air.  These kinds of celebrations are dangerous for two reasons.  First they sometimes turn nasty.  Maybe for some of the former inmates, the joy of getting out does not completely balance the annoyance of being put in.  Second and probably more important is that other rule of law — gravity.   What goes up must come down.  Falling bullets hurt and kill people.  They tend to tumble a little, but they come down with force similar to what they went up with.  Not a good thing to get caught in that rain.  The Marines told us that it would be very embarrassing if we got shot while under their care.   They ushered us out quickly and we missed the rest of our appointments.It is surreal.   Our hosts at the bank were not armored or protected and they were also not particularly concerned.  They were just bringing out cakes and little cans of Pepsi (very cute little cans) when we made our excuses.  Those kids you saw in my picture just kept on playing.  I understand the need for safety in general.  I also understand that given the circumstances of the celebrations our presence might actually cause a celebratory mob to turn unpleasant creating danger for ourselves and those people around us.  I just hope there is less such joyful noise so that we can get more work done.

Sorry no ACTUAL pictures.  I forgot my camera.  My wife tells me my poses are getting formulaic anyway.  The picture I have included is from my files.  It is the house where I grew up in Milwaukee.   I planted that horsechesnut tree on the corner – from seed – in 1966, so you can see how big such a tree gets in 40 years.  Maybe I should have fertilized more…or some.

This is the real post

Sheiks are picturesque, but the future of Iraqi democracy is in the hands of the more prosaic local leaders: mayors, local council members and ordinary administrators.

We had a long talk with one of these guys, the mayor of Haditha at the home of a local notable.  His city of Haditha is recovering from the late unpleasantness.  As we drove through town, I noticed that shops are open and full of goods; people are rebuilding homes and fixing damage.  The neighborhood around our destination was very upscale and looked undamaged or repaired.  When we returned after dark, I noticed that the lights were on all over town.    The condition of the city leaves no doubt that it recently was the center of a war zone, but the life of the city gives hope that those dark times have passed. 

The Mayor is a believer in democracy and free speech.  He expressed some anxiety, however, about the quality of leadership available at the national and provincial level in Iraq.   There was not enough virtue and honesty, he complained, necessary for democracy to flourish and expressed the wish that the U.S.  would encourage the appointment of better officials at the national level, ones that would not be beholden to foreign interests.   He was speaking about Iran.   The general opinion around here is that the Iranians currently have overmuch influence in Iraq.  We discussed the need for virtue more generally. 

Our American founding fathers had little confidence in the long term efficacy of virtue in protecting liberty.   Their reading of the history of republics informed them that virtue is often in short supply among the political classes.  Lord knows we Americans do not usually have enough virtuous politicians to go around.  That is why they relied on balances and checks that would keep virtuous people virtuous or at least channel their self interest into less harmful directions.  With that in mind, I said that all governments need strong institutions to contain the ambition of potential leaders.  The Mayor mentioned a free media.  Unfortunately, this section of Anbar doesn’t have any regular media, but the mayor assured me that informal networks (i.e. gossip) were usually sufficient to keep the people informed.

I wondered if the “Iraqi diaspora” could use the skills and knowledge acquired in exile to help in their former homeland’s transformation, as expatriates from E. Europe had helped those countries throw off the lethargy of communism.   The Mayor corrected me, pointing out that in the case of Poles or Lithuanians, those who left and came back had been well integrated into society.  In some cases, they were well known and respected before they left.  In contrast, the Iraqi exiles were more often members of oppressed minority groups or isolated individuals.   Saddam was more brutal than the later years of communism in Europe.   Many of overseas Iraqis feel less connected with their homeland and are unenthusiastic about returning.  Even if they did they often lacked the networks and entrée that was common for E. European returnees.  Iraq’s future rests almost exclusively on the people who had stayed in, or at least near Iraq.

As we discussed Iraq’s future, we naturally moved to the economy and investment.   There are two big facilities in the Haditha district:  Haditha dam, which supplies power for most of Anbar and some of Baghdad, producing 180-200 mw of hydropower every day, and K3, a refinery and pump station for oil from Bayji in the north.  The pumping doesn’t work and the refining does not even support local needs.    If it was up and running near capacity, it could satisfy local needs and send product to other regions.  K3 produces kerosene and naphtha, the latter is also blended to make benzene.

For a “small” investment of $80 million, the pumping facility, which would service Basra and has connections to the Mediterranean through Syria, could be refurbished and developed, which would facilitate oil export, pay fat dividends and would probably reach a break even point within months, not years .  Why the central authorities, who own the plant, neglect this opportunity remained a mystery to all involved in the discussion.

Iraq needs a lot of investment, the mayor allowed.   That is why he hoped the Americans would be in Iraq now and forever.  He says that he always tells people to look to Japan, Korea and Germany.   The guarantee of stability provided by U.S. involvement s is like an umbrella for investment.   Investment goes only where it feels secure.  The recent success in Anbar has bought some time with the American political process, but the Marines continually point out that they will go home and American troop levels will drop.  Iraqis like the Mayor do not want to hear this.  

Rule of law is a prerequisite for both democracy and the free market.   The mayor pointed to out that during the recent insurgency, rule of law was not well established for the practical reason that it was nearly impossible to gather evidence or bring witnesses.  Now that order is being restored, it is time to establish procedures and rule of law.  We agreed that the test of rule of law was when it was applied to those we disliked. 

It is encouraging to talk to a man like The Mayor.   The discussion highlighted how far Iraq had come, but also how much remains to be accomplished.

Personal greetings are really important around here.  People visibly brighten up when you  acknowledge them with a simple wave and a “salaam”.  All of us make a special point to greet strangers when we pass.  Of course, when someone you know walks in, that is occasion for even more complicated good wishes.  From my initial observations and all I read or am told, this is an intensely personal culture.  Everyone needs to be included and acknowledged and relationships trump everything else.

It is also the culture of the spoken word.  People do not read much, but they listen carefully and remember the elegant spoken word.  Some people just like to hear themselves talk, but surprisingly others like to listen to the long talk.

I am beginning to appreciate the Arabic language.  I understand almost nothing, but I can hear the musical quality and I am learning to enjoythe animation of the speakers.  I like to listen to the calls to prayer and the readings from the Koran.  They are very evocative. 

All I can manage to actually say is the simple Salaam and then I flash a broad smile.  Despite the language barrier, I almost always get a smile back and it think it makes a difference to both of us.

When Robert E. Lee surrendered the Army of Northern Virginia at Appomattox, the erstwhile rebels went home.  Officers kept their private side arms and horses and nobody was persecuted for what happened during the war.  These generous terms were part of the reason that the bloodiest war in American history did not result in permanent hatred or discord.  April 1865 was the month that saved America.  Such a result is rare in the history of the world. We should take the lesson. 

We went up to Al Qaim for a “reconciliations event” with local leaders and Sheiks.  Some people in the late insurgency were/are evil terrorists, but others were/are “legitimate” fighters who fought on the wrong side.  There are two options for  them.   You can hunt down and eliminate the enemy by killing them or imprisoning them, or you can eliminate the enemy by reconciling them with society.  There is a time and place for each strategy.  Reconciliation gives hope to all sides and by seeking and accepting reconciliation the former insurgent recognizes the legitimacy of the societal structures he raised his hand against and now wants to reenter as a productive member.   

In W. Al Anbar, the tribes (within the law) decide who can be brought back and who stays in the desert, whether of not the things the person has done are beyond the pale or if they can be forgiven.  The tribal leaders vouch for their prodigal members and get the agreements of leaders from other tribes.  Since tribes are very much like extended families, the reconciliation is also among the members who may have had what amounts to a blood feud based on the transgressions of particular tribal members.   Essentially the Hatfields and McCoys need to accept that further revenge is inappropriate. 

We Americans can watch it happen, but it is not our process.  It clearly is based on traditions that go back thousands of years.  But we can see from our own history (I mentioned above) the usefulness of ending bloodletting by avoiding more of the same. 

The 1865 analogy is good, but it was not mine w/o prompting  The leading Sheik of Al Qaim told me that he had studied American history as a young man.  He was especially interested in our civil war and how it ended.  Beyond that, he spoke passionately for a united Iraq and asked me to be sure that Americans understood the history of the place. He was upset that some in America were calling for a partition of his country, which he said was unnecessary and ultimately unworkable.  I asked about a more federal state, reminding him what he already knew, that the U.S. was a federal country with strong local autonomy.   I was surprised that he had little faith in the efficacy of local institutions in Iraq, even though he and his Anbari colleagues had clearly shown that they could lead the way toward a more peaceful Iraq through their local initiatives and had succeeded BEFORE and the central authorities.  

The Sheik told me that Iraq was not like the U.S. and that it needed a stronger hand and more centralization because the people of Iraq had little experience with anything else.  I disagree with his conclusions (although I certainly did not presume to dispute with him the history of his own country).  My perspective might be the triumph of hope over experience, but his is the dominance of past experience over hope for the future.  Of course, I have to take his opinion very seriously.  Not only does he have the knowledge of the country that I could never attain, he also has power to influence the future of Iraq, and so his opinion is more than an academic construction.

We also talked about Iranian influence and the long history of Persia trying to dominate Mesopotamia, but I will not go into specific detail.  Suffice to say, he was against it and blamed nefarious Iranian influence for many of Iraq’s current tribulations. 

As a practical matter all this changes little in what either of us will be doing in the near term.  We are both seeking to strengthen local institutions, improve the local economy and set Al Anbar on the road to a better future.  The bigger issues will certainly be decided above my pay grade and probably even above his.  Still, I will think hard about what this thoughtful man told me about his  country and when I meet him again I hope to have better questions to ask.

These are some of the Iftar guests waiting to hear the after dinner talk.  Sorry for the blur. I have to work on my camera settings.

 It was a long helicopter ride to Haditha.  We had the show time of 11.  Then we had to wait in the sun for a long time.  Then we had to land and refuel.  Then we flew I do not know where.  The bottom line is that the half hour trip took about 3 hours.

We were going for an Iftar dinner, but since I had a few hours before the event, we went to the CMOC, the place where the Marines interface with the local people.  Since it was Tuesday, they were open for business.  Movement in the city is still controlled and the Marines issue driving permits.  It is a very good way to get to know the people and get a handle on the population.  Unfortunately, it is “good” in the way a visa line is good.  People come, but waiting in line for hours is not their idea of a positive experience.  How popular is the DMV back home?  For now the process provides valuable security protection, but we need to get out of this business quick as we can.  You do not win friends by creating backlogs.

There must have been a couple hundred Iraqi men waiting in line.  Many were dressed in various traditional costumes.   The balance had on something like polo shirts.  They were very patient.  To the apparent surprise of my translator, I decide to work the line.  My translator assured me that no good could come from this, since they would not tell me the truth, but I figured I could learn something from what they said anyway.  Most told me that the security situation had improved.  About that they were happy.  But the restrictions and bureaucratic procedures were starting to pinch.  One guy claimed he delivered cooking gas and had to cross the bridge.  He needed a permit and he complained that he had to renew that permit each week, standing hours in line each time.  He had a point.  Other people just did not like the procedure.  Some figured that they were important people and should not have to put up with such trouble.  I suppose they had a point too.  One guy, who insisted on speaking English but was really hard to understand, told me he was a Turkoman who had fled the city of Kirkuk.  He was not fond of the Kurds and evidently they felt the same way about him, hence his unexpected sojourn in Syria, where he was treated poorly too, and ultimate settlement in Anbar.  He offered the unsolicited advice that I should never eat any food in the south of Iraq because it would give me diarrhea.   Let’s hope he doesn’t end up there should he fall out with the Anbari.

Dressed as I was in my wrinkle free blue Brooks Brothers shirt and civilian clothes (I made a special point of being “civilian”), I am not sure the people in the line knew what to make of me.   Of course I doubt anybody told me the whole truth, but their words had the feel of “truthyness”, as Stephen Colbert says.   I do not know if the smiles were sincere, but the grumbling was real – and justified.   I am sure they also felt a lot of anger, which they did not express to me.  In their place, I sure would have felt that way. 

After a while I realized that they thought I could solve some of their problems.  I felt bad for creating the false hope so I retreated inside.  I am a great believer in eliminating the petty annoyances that plague ordinary people’s lives and  I am trying to think of suggestions to ameliorate the situation, but it really cannot be fixed.  The Marines were working hard & treating the people with respect.  The Iraqi police, who were doing the initial screening, seemed polite.  When it is not Ramadan one of the Iraqi employees told me that they provide water, but there is only so much you can do with something like this.  We need to eliminate the whole thing.  The Catch 22 is that we cannot do that until the situation is more “normal” but such daily annoyances are among the things that make it abnormal.

Iftars start at sundown, so we started up to the police HQ around 5:30.  This are used to be a youth center and sports complex.  There was a soccer field with bleachers.  It looked like an ordinary soccer field, except there was no grass.  One of the guys explained to me that it would not be worth the water to grow grass and that Iraqis were accustomed to these kinds of surfaces anyway.  I suppose it is like playing tennis on a clay court – a dusty clay court.

We went through Iraqi security and then Marine security and got to a big lecture hall where the Iftar meal was to be held.  The local civil authorities and sheiks started to arrive.   The most important was a very old and frail looking guy who chain smoked.  He was very old, but despite the nasty habit was in good health.  He still has a strong handshake and I could see and feel the politician in him even in the twilight years.  He had decided that it was in the best interests of his people to go with America.  He was right and we were grateful.  I then met some of the younger guys.  When they shake hands, they do a type of shoulder bump.  I had seen it before and even practiced it, but they noticed my inexperience.  One of them told me that I would get better as I spent more time in Iraq.

The mayor of Haditha was the official host.  When I talked to him, it was clear he was interested in the good of his people.  He said that schools were most urgent.  They had school buildings, but were lacking desks, supplies and often windows.  There is also a shortage of trained teachers.  Iraqis had once been among the most educated people in the Arab world, but Saddam was not much interested in it, especially in the later years.  The government would sometimes make a PR point of opening a new school, but they did maintain the ones they had.  Education was a kind of Potemkin village in Iraq.   

The mayor of neighboring Barwana said very similar things.   He was a friendly younger guy.  He said he could understand English, but not speak it.   I am inclined to believe he was telling the truth.  He seemed to know what I said before the translation came in. 

Power for both cities comes from the Haditha Dam, which impounds the water of the Euphrates. The dam is running at capacity, but that capacity is low.  This country has lots of potential.  It has come a long way and there is a lot of work to do, but I think it can make it this time, God willing.

I spoke to the colonel of the Marines who is scheduled to take over command in Haditha.   He had been in Falujah during the intense fighting there a couple years ago.  He told me that the change in Al Anbar is unbelievable.   When he was here last time, he thought that we had essentially lost and that all that was left was the recognition.  Today things are going in our direction and peace is possible.

This was a good visit.  People were friendly and seemed ready to cooperate. My only fear is that we ( and I) will not be able to live up to expectations.  There is a lot to do here and it is hard to get things done.   The flight back was uneventful.  I still do not like helicopter rides at night, however.