World-Wide Matel

Every Muslim who is able is supposed to make a pilgrimage to Mecca at least once in his/her life.  This visit, the hajj, is one of the five pillars of Islam.  It takes place during the lunar month of Dhu al-Hijja, which this year will start on December 11.

We are not directly involved with the hajj, but take a look at the map and notice where Anbar province sits.  Obviously thousands of pilgrims moving through our area of operations is hard to ignore.   Having Coalition Forces around will make it a safer journey for them as CF operations disrupt AQI and insurgents, so that the ostensibly devout (AQI) will have a harder time murdering the genuinely devout (pilgrims going to Mecca).

The Marines have been learning about the hajj and how to be culturally aware around the Iraqis and those traveling through Iraq during this special time.  Iraq shares a border with Saudi Arabia and pilgrims traveling over land to Mecca from the north and the east logically pass though Anbar.  I recently attended a lecture about the hajj.  One of the Marines had been assigned to learn about it and deliver a talk to enlighten the others.  He did an excellent job and was very earnest in his task.  It is important to be earnest.    His lecture was as factually correct as most I heard at college and it was a good deal more entertaining.  He connected the idea of pilgrimage to examples in the experience of most Marines and then gave the background on the significance of Mecca, the pilgrimage and many of the things pilgrims do before, during and after the hajj. 

Of course the best outcome for all involved is that absolutely nothing exciting happens during the month of the hajj, in Iraq or anyplace else.  According to the lecture and what I hear from other sources, the hajj is generally peaceful, as people are in a generous mood and no good Muslim engages in violence during this period. Of course, there always are some who seek the notoriety of disrupting peaceful people even during a special time like this. Let’s hope they don’t succeed this year.

A couple of years ago my son Espen  came for a take your child to work day.  I still have the letter he wrote about his experience.  He was bored because I didn’t do anything interesting that he could watch.  He concluded correctly that I was in the persuasion business and it is not interesting watching persuasion being made.

Diplomacy is like that.  You meet interesting people and wrestle with interesting ideas, which is why I like the work, but you really do not DO very much interesting stuff.  I guess that is why they do not make television dramas, or even comedies, about diplomats and when we do appear we are usually slick sweet talkers.  That characterization is unfair, but I can well understand if that is the way others see us.  Much of the time we are transmitting messages and if we do succeed in changing minds, they will look no different and it may well be best for all involved if nobody acknowledges that a change occurred or why.

I thought working in Iraq might be different, but it isn’t.  I spent my career in public diplomacy.  Since first post in Porto Alegre, Brazil, I have managed staff, run programs, met people, written reports and been generally in the persuasion business.  In Iraq I do the same things.  Being a PRT leader is not substantially different from working as a public affairs officer in Krakow or Porto Alegre.  Of course, I work with vastly greater resources and in a less settled general atmosphere, but I feel comfortable doing the KIND of job I have been doing for twenty years.

I was about to write that another difference is that working in Iraq is more dangerous, but I do not think that is still true.  The security arrangements make it seem a lot scarier, but those same precautions also make is less dangerous.  Beyond that, the security situation on the ground had improved very much.  On the other hand, in Porto Alegre I shared the road with big trucks and bad drivers when I traveled on narrow roads around my district.  On one particularly narrow and curvy coastal highway, informally called the road of death, I kept count of fatal accidents I passed.  During one seven hour drive, I saw seven – one for every hour.  Similarly, on the narrow poorly maintained road from Krakow to Rzeszow in Poland, traffic fatalities were so frequent that Polish traffic accident terms were among the words I could recite like a native.  I believe that driving developing country highways is statistically more dangerous than working here in Iraq today.

It is harder to work here and much more uncomfortable.  After the initial excitement of traveling in helicopters and convoys dissipates, you have the tedium, noise and discomfort of traveling in helicopters and convoys and travel is unreliable.  It might take days to make a simple trip and you might get stuck for a long time where your only option is to embrace the suck. 

What I miss is most the spontaneity and serendipity that I enjoyed in my earlier posts, but I am afraid that is lost in much of the world – not only in Iraq – due to security.  Terrorists have forced us to hunker down all over the world.   In Porto Alegre or Krakow, my office was on the street.  Friends and contacts could and did just wander in to talk and I could just walk out the office door and find them. If I had business with the head of the university or the mayor of the city, I could just go over and talk with him.  You get a lot done in those situations and it is a pleasure to do.  Of course, I could speak Polish and Portuguese and I do not speak Arabic, but that is not the key difference.  What I could resolve with a couple of minutes and two cups of tea in Krakow or a small coffee in Porto Alegre now is literally a Federal case requiring days of planning.  More perniciously, the ubiquitous security complicates human interaction, destroys spontaneity and makes it very hard to achieve the kinds of solutions that create synergy by giving everybody more than they thought they would get. 

I do not know if we can ever get that back – anywhere.  We have become a world of guards, gates and barriers, even in our own home towns, even in our own homes.  Terrorism has stolen a part of our humanity.

I am drifting too far into the dark side.  Today is Sunday.  We only work a half day on Sunday.  I am going to take advantage of this sunny and cool morning to run down to the peaceful Al Asad oasis and think harmonious thoughts for a least a couple of hours.

My father was a veteran of the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) and always spoke well of the experience.   I enjoyed the fruits of the CCC labors, as trees they planted came to maturity just in time for me and I have always had a special fondness for the whole idea of the CCC.  As a long time Federal worker, I am acutely aware of the limits of government, but the CCC was a big program that mostly worked. When I had my initial talk with our Ag guy Dennis, I told him that I wanted us to make a CCC style contribution, albeit a smaller one, to soil, water, flora & fauna of Iraq.  He has come up with a big project. 

Our area of operations is dusty desert with a ribbon of green along the Euphrates River.  We do, however, have a beautiful lake, called Lake Qadisiya, which I wrote about in an earlier post.  The waters of the lake provide for irrigation and produce hydroelectric power.  In this hot, dry climate, substantial amounts of the water are lost to evaporation.  The hot sun plays the dominant part, but dry winds have a significant supporting role.  A belt of trees planted perpendicular to the prevailing winds would, according to Dennis, reduce evaporation loss, trap blowing dust and generally ameliorate the local microclimate.  Date palms, being the most common tree around here, we thought of them.   The date palms have the added advantage of supplying marketable fruit in the short term, so they are the promise of the future and a blessing for today.

I was a little skeptical of the efficacy of such a scheme.  In the more moderate environments where most of us live, such things are less necessary or effective, so it is beyond my experience.  But Dennis has his PhD in Iraqi soils and I have to believe he knows what he is talking about.   Reid, our civil affairs person, confirmed it with a negative example.  He was assigned to Diyala Province during the 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom.  He noticed the incongruous presence of what looked like rice paddy infrastructure in the desert and came to understand that there had indeed been rice there before the 1980s.   Extensive groves of date palms had protected and improved the micro climate, preventing dehydration and increasing local humidity enough to allow rice cultivation. During the Iraq-Iran war, Saddam, fearing that insurgents or Iranian agents could hide among the trees, destroyed the groves and consigned vast acreage to the desert.

This will be a big project, one we can begin but never hope to finish, a generational task like the work of the CCC.  We are talking lots of trees to do the whole job, more than we can reasonably achieve, but it is better to start now than to wait for the perfect opportunity that will never come.  In time perhaps what now seems so improbably will come to look inevitable.  It makes sense.Although once established, the trees will create the conditions for their own continued success, they will require irrigation to get them started, so it would be not enough to just get some guy to plant seedlings every two paces as you might be able to do in more benign environments.  The investment required to do this is well beyond our means, so we will be looking for partners.   The near term pay off in terms of the dates we hope will entice local cooperation.  It is easier to convince someone to do something by promising a cash crop in a few years than offering the satisfaction of having done something good for a future generation, but people are motivated by both and we will present a balance.

Maybe I should also include some windmills to tilt at.

Anything you have “too much of” is not a problem; it is an opportunity.  In Iraq, junk opportunities abound.  In an earlier post I talked about the strange cases of sophisticated jet fighter planes strewn randomly around the desert.   They are just some of the more unusual components of a very large junk pile that is Iraq.

Debris piles are nothing new here.  Until 200 years ago, people were only vaguely aware of the great civilizations of Mesopotamia.  French and British archeologist were much more interested in learning about them than the people nearby and it was not until they got here that anybody started to study the big mounds of dirt and rubble that formed the most prominent hills in an otherwise pancake flat landscape between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The ancient Mesopotamians built with mud brick. When structures were no longer worth repairing, they just smoothed them down and built on top, ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Over time, town elevations increased. Each layer from a different time, so keeping track of precisely where particular artifacts were found makes a difference for the chronology. Before the 19^th century archeologists arrived, people plundered the mounds for treasure and building materials, but rarely paid attention to the context.  As a kid fascinated by ancient history, I was puzzled that anybody could be so dismissive of the past.  I am beginning to understand, if not accept that perspective.

Heaps of junk and garbage are everywhere.  Most is the detritus of recent civilization.  Modern people produce more rubbish than their ancestors did and the materials are different.  Mud bricks made of dirt, pottery shards made of dirt and artifacts made of dirt are not that different from the dirt they are piled on.  In fact most people probably thought they were just dirt piles.  Nevertheless, trash of all kinds persists in the desert.  In humid climates, metal rusts; wood rots and minerals dissolve.  Above all, growing vegetation soon covers any garbage pile, integrating it into the living environment or at least obscuring the view. Not here.  In Anbar integration processes anticipate the advent of the next ice age to do their work and bide their time until then.

Trash heaps are so ubiquitous that you stop paying attention, even if digging in them might reveal history.  I suppose the native population of the region just became inured to them, as I have.  The first nearly complete Soviet MiG lying in the desert is interesting.  After a while they become about as remarkable as a derelict car on blocks outside a trailer park.   The types of junk below the fighter jet in the pecking order of interest fall even faster.

We need to make a distinction between junk, trash, garbage and scrap, BTW.  Scrap can be very valuable, especially with prices rising as the worldwide demand for metal climbs.  The Iraqis may not be sitting on a gold mine, but their scrap heaps are mines for all sorts of other metals.  The Iraqi government figured this out and outlawed the export of scrap.  They want to keep it here. Rebuilding Iraq will require lots of girders and rebar.

Some of the best scrap is the wreckage of war.  Good metal goes into weapons systems.  Wreckage of war is maybe not exactly right.  Saddam enriched Soviet, French and Chinese arms merchants buying war materials that he never properly used.  Everybody would have been better off is Saddam had just brought scrap from the Soviets or the Chinese and dumped it directly w/o the intervening steps.  There is no American scrap in Saddam era scrap piles. 

The widely held misconception that U.S. firms armed Saddam is …a misconception.  In actual fact, the U.S. supplied only 0.47% of his vast arsenal.  That is ZERO point four seven and that is why there is no pre-2003 U.S. scrap.  But we are making up for it now.  Our big bases feature big junk yards, but the difference is that U.S. owned scrap can be exported, so these junk yards are going concerns.  Iraqi scrap stays here.  

Iraq lacks the capacity to reprocess its iron mountains.   This is an opportunity, not a problem.    I can only imagine how fast a mini-mill company like Nucor could turn that junk into useful building material, but if they built a modern factory in Iraq, what would they do when they had worked through the supply?  There is already an overcapacity of steel production worldwide.  Since Iraq has no significant iron ore deposits and these giant piles of scrap will not last very long if efficiently processed, perhaps it makes more sense to export the scrap and import the metal.  Somehow I doubt that good sense solution will be the one chosen.   Everybody wants to be in the steel business. Unfortunately not everybody can make money at it.

Above is a picture of part of my forest in Virginia, my 178 acres of private landowner contribution to the world’s forests.  The picture is from 2006.  the litte trees in the front are much bigger now.  They grow up so fast.

Today I had the usual meetings and paperwork, but mostly I caught up on my reading.  I found an interesting article on Iraq  but I promised myself not to think only about Iraq.  And a good news article about trees puzzled me.  According to the report, developing countries are leading that way in planting trees.  They evidently planted a billion trees last year.  UNEP spokesman Nick Nuttall speculates “… they more intimately understand the wider benefit of the forests from stabilising water supplies and soils up to their importance as natural pharmatives as well as the importance of trees in combatting global warming.” How nice and PC.  What was puzzling about this was that I remembered that Southern U.S. landowners plant more than a billion trees EVERY year and it does not make the news at all.  I found out that the U.S. produces around 1.6 billion seedlings a year – every year.

When you look at the big picture you have to wonder why something is so extraordinary in some places and routine in others. How best to make it routine worldwide?  The key but prosaic explanation is private property rights. In twelve southern states we routinely, every year, plant a billion trees and because somebody owns them. If the what the UNEP guy says about that intimiate understanding in developing countries is true, you have to wonder how they got in that treeless mess in the first place.

It is also one thing to plant the trees and quite anther to be ABLE to protect them. Big PR events and passionate speeches are great theater, but the best way to protect forest resources is through the protection of property rights. That is because when all the speeches are done, the party is over and the activists have moved on to the next cause, if you have property rights somebody still cares intensely and personally about each acre of trees. It is no coincidence that the worst cases of predatory logging occur on lands that are publicly or communally owned or where property rights are not well respected. It is a classic case of the tragedy of the commons coupled with the predatory mentality of transient firms, the cupidity of bureaucrats and the corruption of governments.

Property rights, protected by the rule of law, are crucial to the most kinds of progress. If you look at a list of the most pleasant and prosperous countries of the world, they vary in terms of types of governments, ideology, geography and culture. What they all share in common is that every pleasant and prosperous place protects property rights.

Strong property rights protect forests, human rights and other living things. I know this goes against some conventional TV-inspired wisdom, but it is clearly the case. That is not only the experience of the southern pine states, but also of the U.S. in general as well as Europe, Australia and other countries with strong property rights protection.

Lest somebody make the extrapolation, protecting property rights to private forest land does NOT preclude the establishment of public parks or preserves. In fact, it enhances it. You can logically set aside special places that need to be protected only if don’t declare everything special. When everything is special, nothing is special and any talk or protection is just talk and no more. Many corrupt countries have on their statute books beautiful and comprehensive laws to protect natural resources, but you cannot find these rules manifest anywhere on the ground.

In fact, I have noticed that in general the very best sounding laws are in places where the rule of law is not protected. They can enact what they want, because they know they will not have to carry it out.So protect forest property rights and enforce the rule of law and you will have forests now and forever. It will not have the same PR impact, but it will ensure forests for today and tomorrow.
As for the new tree planters, keep it up. Make it a routine so that it doesn’t even get noticed by the media. A word of advice to the UNEP and the governments involved in this noble endeavor. If you want those seedlings to grow to be healthy mature trees, make sure you protect the property rights under them.

I got my TV connected a few days ago and for the first time in almost two months started watching the news again.  There was a lot of debate about whether or not the surge was working.  While my experience in Iraq is deeper than it is broad, I have observed a few things since I got here that apply to the wider Iraq debate.  I will not reveal anything sensitive and what I am writing here is my personal opinion.  Those of you who know me can discount/compensate for my biases.  All others are on their own.

From my point of view, the surge in Iraq has worked.  My team and I can go places and do things were impossible just months ago.  The Marines who were here before tell me about the unbelievable changes and I can see for myself people rebuilding and putting their lives back together.  We are well received by Iraqis.  Kids come out of their houses to wave at the convoys.  They clearly are not afraid of us.  It is abundantly evident that this place that has just experienced war and war is a terrible thing to experience.  The bad guys can still murder and do damage, but they are increasingly marginalized.  Iraq will not be as peaceful as Switzerland any time soon, but there is a chance now.  It might be the best chance this place has had since the time of Hamurabi to establish a reasonably stable country where rule of law prevails.

Achieving this, however, required and continues to require strong measures.  Security must come before development and security is established and maintained by force.  In an functioning society, force is less obvious and required less frequently, but even Mayberry has a sheriff and a jail.

Here in Anbar the Marines cooperated with local leaders to establish security.  Insurgents and AQI ruled in most of this place last year.  They could not be persuaded to leave.  They needed to be pushed out.  Not all insurgents were terrorists, and some – most – can be reconciled with civilized societies, as I wrote in a previous post.  Others are just bad.  No earthly redemption is possible.   They need to be removed and the sooner the better because their influence is like a pathogen.  Many people who would be good and honest people are corrupted by contact with them.  You are saving lives by removing them from the population.  I know this is very unPC.  It is also true.  Even in our established societies, we have the Jeffrey Dahlmers and the Ted Bundys.  When the institutions of society break down it gets worse.

What works to establish security is persistence.  The Marines patrol.  Most of the time when they patrol nothing happens.  But it is a numbers game.  Sometimes they find things and their presence disrupts the bad guys and makes them nervous.  In addition, As the Iraqi people see the Marines in routine roles they get accustomed to them and more cooperative.

Most insurgents or terrorists are not fanatics who want to die.  In fact, they are often a little on the lazy side.  Many do it for the money or the excitement.  When success is easy, lots of people want to get involved.  When it gets harder or dangerous, they stay home and find better things to do.   That is why a simple strategy like an earth berm is a useful counter insurgency measure.  Obviously, they could just climb over the berm, but they usually don’t because it exposes them to detection and they are just too lazy to hump their equipment over the top.

The Marines have done their part.   It is now becoming the task of others.  Our PRT is part of that “diplomatic surge”.   We can help but it is ultimately up to the Iraqis to finish this job. Iraq is potentially a prosperous country.   I cannot predict the future, but it seems to me that Iraq can become a reasonably democratic and stable place, if we put in the effort.  This is not a pleasant place, but I would be unhappy if I got pulled out before I had the chance to try to finish my job.

Hunks, Monks, Chunks & Drunks

They told us before we came to Iraq that we would end up becoming one of those things above.   The first two are easy here in Al Asad, the third not so much and the last one probably not at all. There are lots of gyms around here and Marines take full advantage of them, so pretty much everybody qualifies as a hunk by civilians standards. They have a 1000lb club (which means lifting more than 1000lbs in a combination of bench press, dead lift and squat).  It is a big club. 

 I don’t know about monks.  Life is austere but the similarity ends there.  Becoming a chunk is possible because of the availability of free, high calorie food, but the Marine culture and the time in the field eating unappetizing MREs militate against it.  Turning into a drunk is practically impossible, since you cannot easily get alcohol and anybody under the influence would stand out.  

It is getting cold around here at night and in the early morning.  Today the prediction is a low of 38.  That is not so cold, but none of the cans have indoor plumbing.  You need to go to a separate building.  Going to and – especially – coming back from the showers will be a chilling experience that many may avoid.   So I expect there may develop a fifth category: skunks.

Iraqi Weather

Speaking of cool, Iraq is not a tropical country.  In summer it is hot (120 degrees is common), but here in the western desert it gets cool during other seasons.  In the last month, the weather has been perfect, around 70 in the afternoon to around 50 at night, but I hear it will be cold soon at night, although usually warming up in the afternoon.  I am ready. I got my coat from Cabalas in the mail a few days ago.

I had an interesting meteorological experience on thanksgiving.  I was on my way to run outside Camp Ripper when I saw a strange dark cloud coming my way.   It was dust.  I decided not to run and instead hunkered down (and got my camera).  The dust did not blow in the wind.  It infiltrated like fog.   It just got darker, colder and harder to breath.  It stung my eyes, but not that much.  The strangest thing was that there were cold raindrops in the dust.  The whole thing had kind of a sinister feeling.  I always assumed that rain would wash the dust out of the air, but evidently not.  Then it passed and it was clear again.

“The fog comes on little cat feet. It sits over the harbor and the city on silent haunches and then moves on.”  What Carl Sandburg said about fog goes for dust, but dust is a meaner, dirtier cat.

Phases of the Moon

I never paid much attention to the phases of the moon but I do now because it matters.  We have no street lights here at Al Asad and it gets darker than an average modern urban American thinks possible.  The walk from the chow hall or the office to my can is very difficult on a moonless night; when the moon is full, as it is today, it is amazingly well lit.