Tour de Iraq

I did catch that flight to Kuwait, but it was diverted to Ballad, where we all got off as the plane did some kind of medivac.   In Ballad, I heard that there was a flight to Al Asad with a 0325 show time, so I went to try to get on that flight.   I got on the waiting list, but at show time they told us that this flight would be for freight only.  No passengers.

The next flight to AA was on Wednesday, but I thought that was the best I could do, so I decided to look for some temporary billeting.   Unfortunately, the guy I asked, although very nice, directed me to general camp billeting.   It was a long way off, but I found it with the help of a guy in a pickup truck.  When I got there, they told me that I could not get that sort of billeting and that I needed to return to the air terminal and get temporary quarters. 

I asked the woman at billeting how to get back to the terminal.  She very helpfully pointed out the door toward a light shimmering in the pre-dawn gloom through the dust.  She told me to go toward the light and I did.

The Texas barrier below are at AA, but they look the same everywhere.

It is very depressing to walk around these places.  There are lots of sandbags and Texas barriers.  A Texas barrier is one of those concrete free standing walls.  It is like the smaller Jersey barrier you see along roads at airports, but it is around ten feet high.  In the gloom of night, they make you feel very constrained.  I wondered if I would ever get back and mentally kicked myself in the keister for just not staying put.

It was longer walk back w/o the help of the pickup truck guy, but I found my way through the dark and got to the building at about the time it started to get light.

To my surprise, the guys I had come in with still had not left.  They had evidently been having even a more frustrating experience than I had.  While I was walking around Ballad, they were going to the flight line on buses and then coming back.  I was able to get in line again, just as though I had never left, and get on the plane for Kuwait. 

The people at the terminal were very helpful in this bad situation.  Of course, they had taken me off the list when I told them I was going to AA, but they put me back on when I explained my sad story.  I notice the woman suppressed a smile.  I didn’t really mind.  It was kind of funny and I am sure I looked comical.   I had been just about everywhere around the base and in the end I finished exactly where I would have been if I never left.   To me, that was a victory. I was  back on the  bus.

The flight to Kuwait was uneventful.  I arrived and finished processing through just in time to miss the chow hall, which closes at 8 am.  I put myself on the waiting list for a flight to AA.   The next flight had show time of 2035.   I got on w/o incident.  We finally were off at a little past midnight and got to AA around 0200. 

I knew we were back in AA as the back of the C130 opened allowing a cloud of dust to come into the plane.  I caught the shuttle bus back to Camp Ripper.  It is funny how much the old can feels like home. 

Below is our new office space.

We are also out of the tents and back in the offices.  My office is actually very nice now.  They put in central air and plugged up a lot of holes, so the dust doesn’t get in as easily.   The office where my colleagues sit now has a couple of Plexiglas windows, so they have some natural light.

Below is my new office – sweet.

Well, back to the old routine with somewhat better surroundings 

Consent of the Governed

Our significant task for the summer & fall will be to help Iraqis hold free & fair provincial elections.  It is a narrow path for us to walk.   The elections clearly belong to the Iraqis and it is important for them really to be theirs AND be perceived as theirs by all the world and the people of Iraq.   On the other hand, we can provide experience as well as technical and security support that will make the elections fairer, safer and more generally more successful.   We can easily help too much or too little. Actually I don’t think there is a Goldilocks “just right” solution.   We will get criticized no matter what result and we just have to accept that we will get much of the blame and none of the credit and be ready for it to happen.

Preparations for the elections will begin in earnest on July 15.  We still are not sure of the date of the elections themselves.   They could be as early as October 1 or as late as December.  There is a lot to do.  The Iraqis do not have accurate census numbers for their local populations, so making accurate voting lists will be difficult.  When you consider the significant trouble we Americans, with hundreds of years of experience, have with the practical job of holding election, you can imagine what the Iraqis are in for.

The people of Anbar are very enthusiastic about voting and I expect a big turnout.   They largely boycotted the 2005 elections and they learned a valuable lesson about Democracy:  non-participation doesn’t work.   They will not make that mistake again. 

The Anbaris have also come to believe in the power of the people to make changes.  Their belief and enthusiasm is a refreshing antidote to the pessimism that says “these people” are not ready for democracy.  They will get what democracy provides.  In the words of Winston Churchill, “democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”

I prefer the first past the post form of elections, the one we have in the U.S. where every elected official represents a specific district and whoever gets the most votes wins.   Our system, however, is considered old fashioned by much of the democratic world.  The part most often criticized is what I consider the key to our stability and prosperity. Our winners take all approach forces compromise.  A group that wins less than a plurality of the votes has only one right.  They can try to get more votes next time.   That means they have to change their platform to appeal to more people or give up. 

Making elections proportional (e.g. 10% of the opinion gets around 10% of the authority) is in theory a fairer way to go, but it has often been the road to ruin when candidates win by a plurality that is significantly a majority (50 %+) of the votes.  Adolph Hitler and Salvador Allende, among others, were elected by only about a third of the voters, for example.  Extremists can often fool some of the people all of the time, but they have a harder time fooling a majority.  A U.S. style system excludes them.  Proportional representation gets their foot in the door.   But I am being old fashioned.  “Our” system tends to predominate in Britain and former British colonies.  Other places not so much. 

The Iraqi election system resembles those of continental Europe or Latin America.  I suppose that is a necessary component in a country as diverse as this one.  It has some complications designed to make it “fairer”.  Let me explain it as simply as I can.

A province gets twenty-five delegates for the first 500,000 people and then one additional for each 200,000 people over that number.   This is an advantage to Anbar, with a relatively low population, since it gets a little extra representation.   You could say it is like our system in the respect that if favors the small.  Wyoming has a population of around 515,000.  It has two senators and so does California with a population of almost 37,000,000. 

Anbar has a population of around 1.3 million, so it will get 29 seats.   All members are “at large” i.e. they do not represent a particular distraction.  Candidates run both as individuals and as party members.  This is how it works in an easy math example.

Stipulate that there are 100 voters and ten seats available.   The election commission determines that a candidate needs 10 votes to win a seat.  Anybody who individually wins 10 votes wins a seat.   But some candidate might win 20 votes.  His “extra” votes are transferred to his party to bring up the total of another of his party’s candidates.   They has a similar system in Brazil when I was there for my first post.  It enhances the power of political parties over candidates and one very popular candidate can pull up a lot of marginal ones, so you don’t always know who you are voting for, but it sort of works.

We are not quite done yet.  There is a proposal that at least 25% of the representatives be women.  In this case, the election commission would determine the number needed and then replace the lowest winning males with the highest losing females until they got the numbers they wanted.

Complicated as this all seems, it looks like it will produce an outcome that at least will approximate “consent of the governed”.    Nevertheless, a great deal of uncertainty remains.  Working in this ambiguous situation will be tough, but I guess that is why we get those big bucks.

I think we all are honored by the opportunity to see and be a small part of democracy at work in the Middle East. 

Medieval Castles, Crusaders & Returning to Iraq

We drove from Jerash a dozen kilometers and eight centuries to the castle at Ajloun.   It was built in 1184 by the Muslims to secure local iron mines and as a counter to the Crusader castle at Belvoir, across the plains.  They say you can see Belvoir from Ajloun, but the day was a little too hazy in that direction for that, or maybe we didn’t look in the right spot.  If you notice the picture up top is very clear sky. That is looking NE.  I don’t know why there was so much haze to the west.

Ajloun never fulfilled its original purpose.  Saladin defeated the Crusaders at the battle of the Horns of Hattin in 1189, which was the beginning of their expulsion from the region.  Castles are interesting to look at and sometimes beautiful, but it is well to remember that they were part of a military technology.  Before the advent of accurate cannon, it was very difficult to capture a well defended castle.  It was a real force multiplier and also a potent psychological symbol of the power and control. 

This castle looks like others I have seen.  It is a little less sophisticated than those I saw in Poland or Germany since it is an earlier version than most of those.  The most sophisticated castle I have ever seen in the Teutonic Knight’s castle at Malbork in Northern Poland.  That one is made of bricks, however, not stone.

below are some pines on the landscape. I think they are Turkish or Alleppo pines, but I am not very good at identifying such species.  Some of them almost look like my loblolly pines.

Ajloun is situated on a hilltop with wonderful views of the surrounding area.  The area here is semi-arid, but it supports olive, apricot and pistachio groves as well as significant pine forests.  As you can see from the pictures, it is a pleasant countryside.

As I write this, the pleasant countryside is a pleasant memory.   I am on my way back to Al Asad.   Right now I am stuck in Baghdad, in the Internet café waiting.  I have learned that I cannot get a flight to AA until Tuesday and then I have to go a circuitous route, on rotary wing, so I figure there will certainly be a dust storm somewhere to strand me in some shit hole along the way.   I have decided to go down to Kuwait instead.   I have a good chance of getting there tonight and then I have a better chance of catching a fixed wing flight to Al Asad.   The longer way sometimes leads faster home.  Wish me luck. It is going to be a long trip no matter what.

I am looking forward to getting back to work at Al Asad.  The work is usually interesting, even if conditions are sometimes challenging. There is still a lot for me to do in my last months.  I read the news about improvements in Iraq.  Casualties are way down for both Iraqis and Americans.  I think we are going to succeed here in Iraq put we have to finish our job and I have to finish mine.  Less than four months to do.  Hard to believe.  Time flies when you are having fun.

Jordan Travel Tips & Observations

Friendly People

Jordanians are very welcoming and English is common, at least around the places tourists go.  I have written and include pictures re some of the great places in Jordan.  It is not as cheap as you might think, largely because a foreigner had to spend a bit more for the reasons below and because of the lack of a western style middle class.  Let me explain that one. 

In developed countries like Germany, France or the U.S., things cost more in general.  But you can take advantage of the amenities the ordinary folks enjoy in terms of moderately priced hotels, restaurants and transit.  In developing countries, you tend to have two classes of accommodation – first class and not really good enough, so you have to either move up or down scale.  Old guys like me are less enthusiastic about repeating our youthful hostel experience, so we move up and tend to spend a bit more than we would for a week’s U.S. vacation.    The class or Marriott resort we enjoyed here is better than we would get for the same price in the U.S., but in the U.S. we would have gone to a cheaper – but still acceptable – hotel.  In Washington or Paris, I happily take ordinary public transportation; in places like Jordan or Egypt, maybe not.

Taxi Driver

We had a good taxi driver that we used all week.  His name is Sami and I recommend him.  He knows his way around, doesn’t get lost and doesn’t take you a lot of shops owned by his friends who give you a “special deal.”  He has seven brothers and they all own cabs, so you can be sure to get a good ride.  His number is 079/5921225. 

Affirmative Action in Cola Pricing

Foreigners pay more for most things.  A can of coke costs a Jordanian dinar, maybe two.  Locals are not paying that much.  Sometimes there is even a sign saying so.  The entry fee at the Jordan River was $2 for Jordanians; $3 for other Arabs and $7 for everybody else.  At least that is transparency.   

If you ask people about this, they don’t think charging foreigners more for everything is dishonest.  They view it as sort of an affirmative action programs.  They say that they are NOT charging foreigners more; they are just giving a break to the locals.   The practical effect is identical, but it sounds much nicer when you are giving one guy a break instead of ripping off someone else. 

You get a fair break at places with posted menus and at shops that have those electronic scanners.  The scanners don’t cheat or recognize ethnicity.   The real cost of a can of coke is around $0.25 – 0.40. Another problem for a foreigner in an Arab country is that the numbers are different.  I though that math was almost universal, but its not.  Arab numbers are completely different from those used in other places.  I was surprised by this, since I know that they call the numbers we use the Hindu-Arabic number system.  Arab numbers are actually like this ٠١٢٣٤٥٦٧٨ .  The Jordanian currency has the international numbers on one side and the Arabic on the other, so that is helpful, but the initial glance makes it easy to give the wrong amount of money. 

Of course, we really cannot complain too much.  English is common here and signs are mostly in English and Arabic.

Travelocity

And beyond that, the trouble we have had with the American company Travelocity.  Chrissy’s flight back to the U.S. was moved from 1030 to 1330.  She got an email telling her that.  It would have made her connection to Dulles impossible.  She tried to get in touch with Travelocity.  They don’t have an international number.  It cost us around $50 in telephone charges, being put on hold etc. to find out nothing.   Finally they just seemed to have cancelled her flight.  Finally, we got it figured out – we hope.  But we still have no confirmation, although two operators promised email confirmations.  She had no confirmation on their site.  My advice is that if you travel overseas, don’t use Travelocity.

Marriott

We stayed at Marriott in Petra, Dead Sea and Amman.  Marriott is great.   They understand the international traveler.  I recommend Marriott whenever you can.  Marriott in Jordan gives really good discounts if you have a CAC card.  Book early, however.  The CAC rates get used up fast.

The Cities of Civilization Are NOT Forever

“In the second century of the Christian era, the Empire of Rome comprehended the fairest part of the earth, and the most civilised portion of mankind. The frontiers of that extensive monarchy were guarded by ancient renown and disciplined valour. The gentle but powerful influence of laws and manners had gradually cemented the union of the provinces.  Their peaceful inhabitants enjoyed and abused the advantages of wealth and luxury.”  This is the opening line of Gibbon’s “Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire.”  Visiting the ruins of the once great city of Jerash gave us something to think about.

Below is Hadrian’s Arch.  The Emperor Hadrian traveled a lot and evidently erected arches wherever he went.  This is the entrance to Jerash.

The second century was indeed a great time.  Pax Romana has created the world’s first globalization.  Like today, diverse peoples mixed in a world market and a type of world system.  Greek was the language of educated commerce and Latin was the language of the law.  The world would not really see the recreation of this sort of trading system until 19th century.  English now plays the world language role of ancient Greek & Latin.   Our situation is like that of the Roman Empire in the 2nd century and like them, we think it will never really end.

Jarash shows the breadth of Roman civilization.  It was nowhere near the center of the empire.  It was not a key Roman city, but Roman civilization reached here as it did in Petra.  Look at the pictures of this ordinary Roman town and imagine how it must have been. 

I suppose it was a lot like today.  People hangin around selling trinkets, calling out “Mr. Where you from?  Rome.  Rome number one.” 

Below – Yay Rome

The wonder of Rome, however, was not in only the buildings you see here.  A great part was in the “software” – laws and administration and much of physical base of Rome’s greatness was literally on or under that ground.  Roman roads tied the Empire together.  You can still walk on Roman roads and bridges from here on the edges of the Arabian Desert all the way to Hadrian’s Wall on the edge of Scotland.  It was the Internet of the times. 

Under the ground was something as astonishing – water works.  Many Roman cities sat in semi arid places.  The Romans brought in water from distant mountains and provide sewage systems to take out the waste.  When the Empire collapsed, so did this infrastructure and Roman towns shrunk and sometimes disappeared.

Above is the Hippodrome, home to chariot races. 

Imagine the Barbarians, scratching their keisters in the forums of Roman cites wondering where that water in the fountain is coming from and knowing they would be unable to keep the system running.     When the Germanic tribes in the west or the Arabs in the east conquered Roman territory, they did not usually intend to destroy everything   Even the Vandals, despite their fierce reputation, tried to keep things going.   But as the Roman engineers and administrators died out, w/o suitable replacement, the light of civilization dimmed, not all at once.  It was more like breaking up a campfire and letting the isolated embers of a fire gradually die.   The empire was a network and the parts nourished each other.  Without the network you get Jerash – beautiful ruins but dead as the rocks around them. 

The other thing you learn when visiting abandoned cities is that cities are not forever.  I think about that in relation to a great American city like New Orleans.  Much of that city will need to be abandoned soon and returned to the cypress and tupelo.   The engineering required to keep a below seawater district dry is just not worth the ecological harm.  But – as usual – I digress.

We had a really good visit to Jerash.  This link has a few more details.

Petra

Most of you are familiar with Petra, even if you do not know.  It is often featured in pictures and it was the backdrop for “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.” 

You get to Petra down a long narrow gorge long ago carved by the action of water.   Petra was an important & prosperous trading center until trade routes shifted.  An earthquake that damaged the water distribution system ensured its continued decline.  Eventually, most of the people wandered off and leaving the site to Bedouins.  The Bedouins are still there, offering donkey & camel rides and selling various trinkets.  Their goats wander the neighboring ridges, picturesquely destroying the local vegetation.

Seeing the Petra ruins is an all day trip.  Of course, you could spend years exploring the whole complex and visiting all the side structures.  We climbed a couple.  There were mostly large, cavernous spaces.  Tomb raiders have long since cleaned out anything of value.  Some of the climbs are difficult and probably dangerous.  Take a look at this steep climb and rickety bridge.

On the plus side, the rocks in the region are some kind of sandstone, which stays rough and provides a good gripping surface for walking.  The rocks in Athens were some kind of marble or alabaster.  It got very smooth and slippery. 

The hardest part of the trip is from the main area up to the monastery.  It is a steep climb that takes around 45 minutes.  The Bedouins offer donkey rides up.  I would not want to ride the stinky animals nor would I trust them not to hurl me into the abyss.  They seem ornery and nasty.  I know they are supposedly sure-footed, but I prefer to be on my own feet. 

It is a hike with many beautiful views and well worth the effort.   You have to get out of the way  as the donkeys come down.

The Romans controlled the place for around 500 years.  Say what you will about them, the Romans built to last.  Even at this edge of their world, there are roads that are still useful after all this time and there is evidence of their good government.  BTW, Chrissy asked me when the Byzantines took over from the Romans, as we visited a Byzantine church.  Of course, the Byzantines WERE the Romans, the Eastern Roman Empire just transitioned.  There was no clear break for them.  The Byzantines called themselves Romans until the fall of Constantinople in 1453.  The term “Byantine” is a 19th Century creation.

The picture on the left shows the treasury at Petra. This is the part of the city that is generally shown on all the pictures.  It is literally carved out of the rock. 

The Nabataeans, who made these structures, were tolerant and eclectic.  They mixed and matched their cultural influences and probably were themselves a diverse people, typical of one sitting on trade routes and so actively engaged in commerce,  with a Semitic/Arab base.  They left no significant literature and not even inscriptions on their buildings, which makes it hard for historians to categorize them.  This makes then a sort of stealth people and the mystery appeals to some. 

In structure on left, as in most others, you can see influences of the Greeks, Romans, Persians & Egyptians.  Of course, the shapes and types of rock face dictated some of the forms.  

On the way back out through the gorge we saw why you might not want to ride the horse carts.  As we came in the passage, we saw a driver having trouble with his horse.  We noticed, but didn’t think too much about it.  When we were about half way up, we heard the sound of hoofs coming behind.  It was the same cart – cart # 3 – careening until semi-control, with too terrified Japanese tourists hanging on for dear life, not having a wonderful day.  I bet they never rent another horse and buggy.  

Below shows what these horse carts look like.

I will let this link explain re history of the place.  There are a few inaccuracies in the link. For example, Pompey was not a Roman emperor, but the site does a good job with other background.

Petra – Chrissy’s Comments

Petra is amazing; I am glad I got to see it.  Photos cannot do it justice.  We got a map/tourist guide from the visitor’s center; they were out of English ones, so I picked Spanish.  I thought we would be able figure out what it said.  Luckily, there were signboards in English along the path giving details on the main sites. 

We decided to go to the end of the trail, to Ad-Deir (the Monasterio), which is the second most famous attraction after Al-Khazneh (el Tesoro, or the Treasury) in Petra.  The brochure said there were over 800 “peldanos tallados” on the way to Ad-Deir; we didn’t know what that meant, I figured it was some sort of carved rosettes or decorations on the Monastery facade.  Eight-hundred seemed like a lot, but they probably had a lot of free time.

I was pretty wrong; “peldanos tallados” actually means “carved steps”–and there are waaay more than 800 of them.  It took us about 45 minutes to get to the top—uphill all the way–and because we are good planners, we went up during the hottest part of the afternoon.  I was pretty happy to finally get there—but it was worth the hike. Bedouins set up tables along the walking paths and even on the switchbacks on the way up to Ad-Deir.  They were selling drinks, jewelry and trinkets-mostly junk; lots of beaded necklaces (from India).  Even the kids were selling; a pair of what appeared to be three year olds had a stand selling rocks, and seemed to be making money at it.  John took a photo of a little girl holding a baby goat; she charged him a dinar.  That’s a dollar and half, pretty good money for just sitting there looking adorable for 10 seconds. 

This is John’s new hat, it speaks for itself.  At least he got the guy to knock 5 dinars off the price.

Up From the Jordan Valley & Meeting Friendly Natives

Above Chrissy at the Petra overlook. 

We climbed from the Jordan Valley up the ancient city of Petra.   It is hot in the valley, but it gets cool quickly as you gain altitude.  The landscape is very rough and the road winds around and up and down.  When donkeys and feet were the only means of transportation, this must have been a nearly impossible trek.  But people obviously made it.

Above is our driver Sami.  We met him in Amman.  He came down to the Dead Sea to drive up to Petra. 

Petra is one of the wonders of the world.  It is a whole city built into the rock face.  We will visit the actual site tomorrow and I will write more when I learn more.

The panorama in this part of Jordan reminds us of north-central Arizona. 

We are staying at the Marriott in Petra.  Marriotts are familar and I like to have some stability when traveling. Chrissy and I walked into down from the hotel to the modern Petra city center, about three kilometers.  The people were phenomenally friendly.  A couple of kids on the street gave Chrissy a part of a plant and me a piece of candy.  They wanted nothing in return.  Everybody was asking where we were from and shouting welcome.  Frankly, I don’t know why people are so outgoing.We went to a bakery and got five pieces of that great Arabic flat bread  and half dozen cookies for one JD.  We had some good kabobs at a local restaurant.  It is a pleasant city, but very hilly and hard to walk around.

Above is the wadi that leads to the old Petra sites.

I have traveled all around Europe and recently in Iraq, Jordan, Egypt & Greece.  I don’t notice that anti-Americanism we always hear about.  I am fairly obviously American and I am always very clear whenever anybody asks me.  I have always felt welcomed.  People approach me, ask questions, tell me about their trips to the U.S. or their friends and relatives there.

Below is me at the Petra overlook.  Same spot as Chrissy’s picture above.

I understand the sources of measurement bias.  Very likely those who take the time to talk to me are already more pro-American.  Maybe they just want my business/money or they like my smile.  But the way I figure it, if all it takes is a couple of dollars and a smile to counter anti-Americanism, the price is not very high.

I don’t trust those polls showing the world dislikes us and I don’t need to ask that question “why do they hate us?”  The general question is bogus.  I know it is as sweeping generalization to sweep all that off the table, but I have seen the polling data and I don’t think it is getting at the deeper realities. Most people in the world are probably indifferent to the U.S. most of the time.  When asked by an opinion researcher whether or not they like the U.S., the recall whatever recent negative news they have seen in the media and answer based on that.  It is a true opinion, but it is ephemeral and not deeply held in most cases.   An actual encounter with a friendly American tends to tap into an entirely different area of response. 

Put the shoe on the other foot.  Remember all the gnashing of teeth about France and the whole freedom fries crap?  Did you really dislike the French?  If a friendly French traveler asked you directions, would you mislead him or be angry with him?  In other words, did Americans’ stated preference really amount to a hill of beans?  The same often goes for others. 

We need to be less concerned with this supposed general opinion and concentrate on the specifics that often DO create troubles.

Jesus, Moses and Mosaics

“And Moses went up from the plains of Moab unto the mountain of Nebo, to the top of Pisgah, that is over against Jericho.  And the LORD showed him all the land of Gilead, unto Dan…”

We went from the Dead Sea, 415 meters below sea level, to the top of Mt. Nebo, which is 656 m higher.   This was the place were Moses saw the promised land, as you can see form Deuteronomy 34 above.   Moses must have had better eyes than I do because I could not see beyond the escarpment over the Dead Sea.  Mt. Nebo was a pleasant place, however, with some trees and significantly cooler temperatures. 

From Mt Nebo, we went down to a town called Madaba.  It still has lots of Christian churches and used to have even more, so the town is full of mosaics from the late Roman and Byzantine times.  Even after the Muslim conquests, the native Christian communities continued to thrive. 

Jordanians seem interested in the Christian and other pre-Islamic heritage of their country and very tolerant of religious diversity.   At least they recognize the tourist value of emphasizing Christian heritage in the birthplace of Christianity.

It is interesting to speculate how different world history would have been if Islamic armies had not conquered this area.  There certainly would have been no Crusades and very likely the center of Western civilization would have remained in the Mediterranean, and even the eastern part, rather than shifting toward the Atlantic and Northern Europe.

It has been more than a quarter century since I studied Greek and forgot almost everything, but I can still put a few things together from a combination of looking at the pictures and tortuously making out a few words.  I was telling Chrissy re some of the pictures when a local guy overheard and in English told me how surprised he was that an American could read that Greek.  I didn’t tell him that I only made out something like three words and guessed the rest from the illustrations.

We went back down the hill into the Jordan Valley.  The river Jordan is a lot smaller than I thought.  In fact, it is really not much bigger than Genito Creek, which runs through our forest land.  It doesn’t look very clean either.  I think that Baptism in the Jordan would risk infection or dysentery.

A lot of the water has been drawn off for irrigation upstream and presumably it as bigger and cleaner back in the old days.  We went to the Jesus baptism site – the place they have identified where John the Baptist baptised Jesus.  The river has changed course, so the place is no longer actually on the flowing part of the stream, but the flood sometimes comes through and a spring keeps the basin full of water.   In ancient times, there were churches at this spot.  Now they are just ruins, although you can still see some of the mosaics.  Below is a more modern mosaic re the site.  Notice the webpage.

I enjoyed going to these sites, maybe because they were so unpretentious.  Not many people make the trip, since it is out of the way.  Notice the transportation.  It was hot out and it was sweaty, but that sort of added to the charm. 

Below is our bus to the baptism site.

Writing Things Down

I am reading a good book called “Partners in Command” about the relationship between George Marshall and Dwight D. Eisenhower.  Biography is my favorite form of literature.  I am always surprised how much these guys wrote down.  They evidently all kept detailed diaries where they wrote their thoughts and plans.  Besides this blog, I have never had the discipline to do that.  I write a lot, but when I write, I tend to speculate and riff, much like you see on this blog.  Even if I assembled all “my papers” I don’t think I could write a decently documented autobiography and nobody else could make sense of it at all.

These guys started keeping journals long before they became famous enough to justify one.  I wonder if the journal keeping helped make them successful.

I HAVE developed one reasonably good journal habit.  It is not biographical, but more pragmatic.   Before something big happens, I write down my prediction and then I don’t look at what I wrote again until well after the event has been decided. Before I look again, I write a brief note of what I thought was going to happen, not what did happen but what I thought I had predicted.  Then I compare them.  I learned this method from a good book on decision making called (appropriately) “Decision Traps”.  

According to the authors, we overestimate our judgment because our memories are not like tape recorders.  Rather they are constantly rewriting and editing memories in light of subsequent events.  We try to make sense of chaotic events and with the benefit of hindsight we emphasize our understanding of trends and facts that turned out to be significant, even if we didn’t recognize them at the time, and forget about those that came to nothing.  That is why all of us are rich and successful in theory but fewer are in practice & that is why we are always sure we could do better than those who were responsible for decisions.  I found that is true for me.  When faced with the evidence written in my own hand, I am often surprised not only by the mistakes I made in the past but also by the fact that my honest memory has been edited to elide or even expunge my most serious  errors. 

The exercise of specifically analyzing my decisions using a concrete written method has improved my decision making, however.  Experience is not a good teacher if you don’t pay attention to the lessons.  I have learned be a lot more disciplined in seeking a wider variety of information, looking at data that disconfirms my assumptions and understanding significant role that chance plays in outcomes.  Of course it is still important to be “certain” once the decision is made.  The hard part is holding the contradictory facts in mind at the same time.  I still make some of the same mistakes I made twenty years ago, but now I see some of the patterns and can anticipate and mitigate.

Anyway, I think the journaling probably provided this kind of look back to great men like Marshall or Eisenhower, just as it does to ordinary guys like me.  They made some serious misjudgements.  Eisenhower was sure he was a failure as a militiary officer and thought he would be selected out.  Douglas MacArthur didn’t think the Japanese would ever invade the Phillipines.  What that shows is that even the best make big mistakes.  Their greatness involves adapting and taking advantage of changes, not in making great predictions.  Eisenhower also said something like no plan every works, but planning does because it makes you think through the permutations.

Our modern Internet age is a little too harsh on people.   Some nerd will fish up any statement you make and use it against you later.  Let me quote Emerson for any future nerd thinking of giving me a hard time.  “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.”  You have to change your mind when facts or conditions change, but at the same time you need to be firm when finishing a job.  Both things are true.  People not involved in real decisions cannot seem to understand the nuance, but as usual I am drifting.

My Iraq blog has helped me and I thank those of you who (I think) are reading regularly.  It is easy to backslide when you are in it alone.  Having others watching tends to make us all more consequent.  I apologize that I sometimes have to generalize or take out details.  Security does not allow me to share some details; others I just prefer to keep to myself.  I hope the story is interesting to you.  It is interesting to me when I go back and remember things I certainly would have forgotten, flushed down the memory hole.