Architect of Victory

We went up to Al Qaim to meet and talk with General Petraeus.  Architect of victory – that is what they called General George C. Marshall in World War II.  The U.S. victory over the AQI and the insurgency in Iraq had many contributors, but David Petraeus was the architect who put it together.   Of course, he would never call himself that.  When asked whether the U.S. had defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq, General Petraeus told the media, “You will not find any military leader who will say this … all we can say is al Qaeda is still dangerous.”

I am not going to speak for the General or repeat anything said during the briefing.   There are plenty of media interviews and pundits you can read to get that.  I just want to say how great it was for me to be a small part of this and add my praise to this great man, who really is the architect of victory in Iraq, even if we still don’t use the V-word.

Last year about this time, the cone-heads were calling him names (remember the moveon.org debacle) and even some respectable politicians were implying that he was lying about conditions in Iraq.  He had composure to ignore the hysteria and the courage calmly and competently tell the truth.  What a difference a year makes.

Touring the POE

General Petraeus, along with the Al Qaim Mayor,  the facility director and assorted dignitaries toured the Port of Entry (POE) at Husaybah.   I attended the opening of the POE back in November of last year.   There were great hopes and optimistic celebrations of the good times that would come with the commerce coming through the gates.  The good times they promised is not what we are seeing today.   The Syrians are not allowing much commerce to flow through the POE.   Eighteen wheelers do not pass through the POE and we saw no significant traffic in general.  

Local officials were unable to explain why, but speculated that the Syrians were satisfied with the traffic coming though POE Waleed to the south or that they wanted to punish the people of Al Qaim for rooting out AQI, but they really didn’t know.   The POE director claimed that he had decent relations with his Syrian counterparts, but that they could do nothing to mitigate the problem, since the decisions were made above their pay grades.

I am not sure how much traffic the POE could handle if a lot of traffic actually came through.  The whole operation has a kind of Mayberry feel.  Everything is clean and pleasant, but it does not have the feeling of a center of activity. 

Western Anbar Progress Report

Sometimes you cannot see the forest for the trees and it might be that I am too close to the situation.  My information comes from talking to people and walking in Anbar.  I report what I see and what I believe to be true.  The caveat to my information is that it is raw material. The people with the big brains can check and aggregate all the information they get from me and others to draw the big picture.   Below is my assessment of progress in Western Anbar in September 2008.  

Governance Governance has continued to improve.  City councils are in place in all our major areas and all have received training from USG funded trainers.  There are still significant differences among jurisdictions.  In order of effectiveness, they are Al Qaim, Anah, Hadithah, Rutbah, Rawah and Hit.   Rutbah has made the most impressive strides over the past period, but they started from a very low base.  An unmistakably positive trend has been the flow of Iraqi money to projects.  The Iraqis are now outspending us 5.5:1 and their trend is up while we are pulling back.  Soon they will be responsible for virtually all the big money.  The ePRT can play hardball with local communities who demand too much, because we know that they have access to GoI funds if they just do the paperwork and go through the process.  The presence of paperwork itself is a step forward, since bureaucracy is beginning to replace personal connections and visits by officials, who previously behaved like grand poobahs distributing public largess at and for their own pleasure.

Fuel delivery is meeting essential needs and has improved recently.  I include this under governance with some regret, since this more properly belong in the private economy.  It is government interference that is the biggest impediment to efficient fuel delivery, but as long as the state system is in place, we can report that it seems to be improving. As I wrote in the last assessment, the official price is too low compared with the fair market price and this central government administrative decision essentially preempts the establishment of legitimate private retail distribution of fuel. 

Our ePRT, CA or IRD has sponsored projects to improve sewage and water infrastructure and more importantly Iraqi money is flowing.  I could make the joke flowing down the sewer, but it is good that they are paying money and attention.  There is significant improvement in Baghdadi, Kubaysah, Hit and Hadithah.  Nevertheless, eating vegetables rinsed in local water remains an exciting game of probability. We usually win, but sometimes not. Reconciliation

Al Anbar never had a significant religious divide, as it is overwhelmingly Sunni.   Local governments are seen as broadly representative of all groups.  But individual government official are still concerned with their own narrow interests, or often those of their respective tribes.  There are still occasional episodes of violence and intimidation, but less often.A big challenge has and will be returning detainees.   While the numbers are not great (dozens per month, occasionally hundreds), they create serious disturbances.   Most detainees evidently reach some accommodation and reconcile. If they are unable to reconcile, the problem is usually solved at the thirty-two day mark, with a drive into the desert where more people go out than come back, which creates tension in terms of rule of law (see below).

What I wrote in the last assessment remains true.  This situation may have reached a steady state.  Mass releases of detainees may cause blips.  In general, however, the situation may improve incrementally but not dramatically since it accurately reflects long-standing local cultural and sociological preferences.Anbar is receiving a significant number of people displaced from other areas.  We have no reliable measure of the numbers, but we see them whenever we travel.  The city of Hadithah, for example, has increased in size by several miles out into the desert.  People began arriving and setting up camps several months ago.  Now they are gathering together rocks and building more permanent dwellings.  We have been told that the local authorities are tolerating the influx and even helping them with land.

I would rate the reconciliation as performing, since it has reached a level that the local people consider acceptable and it is unlikely to change much into the near or medium-term future.Political Development

When I wrote the last assessment, I expected that the fall elections would solve many of the problems.   I still think that may be the case, but the postponement of the elections not only postpones a solution, but makes a happy solution less likely.  We have heard some, but not too significant grumbling about the postponement. Unfortunately, I believe that this represents more resignation than acceptance. Political development is essentially on hold.

As I wrote in my last assessment, political parties are attempting to operate w/o recourse to violence, but it is still difficult for party leaders to understand that they should not develop militias.  The threat of violence against political parties is still real.  Insurgents have made attempts to attack some party leaders and facilities.  Sometimes it is unclear whether these are personal or local disputes or are specifically aimed at the political parties.I also observed in the last assessment that ordinary people seem to feel free to express their political ideas and preferences.  When speaking with individual Iraqis on the streets, we are often surprised that when we tell them that they need to take matters to their local leaders, they tell us that they already have.   I would add that this openness has continued but that the results the people are getting from leaders have improved little, but they are improving.  Most of that improvement results from the increasing flow of money from GoI.  I guess any problem that you can pay your way out of is not a problem, it is just an expense, but time will tell. 

I really cannot rate this at the local level.  Last time I said it was developing, with the condition of the election.  That condition remains and bears more acutely. Economics

I have to divide economics into a variety of subgroups.   Progress has been uneven over Western Anbar.Transportation

There are some excellent roads, but overall they are in bad condition and not sufficient to support the economic growth Western Anbar needs.   Road building would entail considerable public investment, but is not difficult given the featureless topography and the ready supply of paving supplements.   Asphalt factories are working in Anah and the Hadithah region and with the expected supply of pitch from K3, they should have enough stuff to black top all the roads in Al Anbar and then some.The rail network is largely intact and running in places.  The railroad supports oil deliveries to the K3 refinery and will soon service the phosphate and cement plants in Al Qaim.

Oil pipelines are still not functioning.  Although they suffered little war damage, they are easy prey to oil smugglers, who break into them along the route.  This means not only that the stolen oil is a loss, but it does not help maintain pressure and usually creates spills and stoppages.   This infrastructure problem depends more on security than economics.

Private SectorMarkets are usually well stocked.  Electronic devices are easily available.  Problems exist on the higher level of goods.  For example, it is nearly impossible to get good truck and car parts.

The most salient development of the most recent period is the proliferation of cellular phones.   These were recently rare, but are on the way to becoming ubiquitous.   I think this is on an exponential growth path.  We only started to notice them recently but the expansion is rapid.

Industrial / Manufacturing Expansion (including SOEs)The cement plant in Al Qaim has been “sold” in an arrangement with a Romanian management firms.   We hear rumors that the phosphate operation may soon move into semi-private hands.  K3 is running and supporting ancillary businesses, such as asphalt and paving.   But there remain problems with getting medium sized plants working.   People are waiting for the state run dinosaur firms to come back into production instead of creating new ones.  There is a general problem with lack of investment capital.  While Western Al Anbar will support agribusiness and some extractive industries, principally phosphate, borax etc., these things require significant up front investment.

Construction is booming in the Hadithah Triad and Al Qaim and to a lesser extend in other regions.  This is more than a “dead cat bounce” and represents real progress.  There are actual labor shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled trades related to construction.  

EmploymentUnemployment remains high because labor quality is low.   There are shortages of trained labor (see above) but much of the Western Anbar labor force is woefully unprepared for any kind of skilled work.   There is a great demand for vocational training, and IRD, ePRT and CA have helped, but this is a long term problem.  A more serious choke point will come when skilled workers at existing operations (such as K3 or the RR) retire.  Iraq has not trained enough skilled workers for at least twenty years.  That deficit is about to hit hard.  The good news is that there will be many opportunities for skilled and ambitious young people, since there will be a shortage.

BankingWarka Bank has four ATMs in Al Qaim and others are expected soon.  The people and leaders of Anbar are ready for banking, and some rightly decry its lack as a major impediment to growth.   There is minor resistance to ATM and private banking because it will make skimming workers’ wages harder, but this should be overcome soon.   The bad news is that state banks may never expand to satisfy demand.  The good news is that this won’t matter if private banks such as Warka move in aggressively and are allowed to expand.

Rule of LawIP are officially committed to the rule of law and our visits (sometimes surprise) to their facilities indicate that they are pushing the idea of rights and legality down to the level of the individual officers. The police apply the laws in doing their duty most of the time, but we still hear complaints of corruptions or favoritism.  Police usually have adequate tools, training and facilities to carry out their missions.  What they most often lack is fuel for their vehicles.  Police do not patrol to the extent necessary for this reason.

Tribal leaders profess their commitment to rule of law.  There remains some exercise of traditional law, especially in the case of released detainees whose crimes involve tribal revenge systems, but there is no overt support or encouragement from leaders.Courts are open, and judges are applying the law with some tribal and other influences.  I wrote in the last assessment that this may have reached equilibrium level, i.e. it is performing in relation to local cultural and political standards, and that additional improvements will be incremental.  I believe that even more strongly today.  Civil authorities are trying to expand their influence in relation to traditional ones.  They are succeeding, but it will be an evolutionary process and certainly one not finished any time soon.

What I wrote in the last assessment about civil law remains true.  Civil cases are being addressed with some instances of discrimination.  Civil law execution is limited in many cases by poor record keeping.  For example, contracts and deeds are filed in no particular order.  For some properties, multiple sometimes contradictory documents may exist.  Unclear property rights may prove a major impediment to local development.  Fixing the problem is a prosaic, but long term task that will take years to work through the system. All these things together and the persistence of many aspects of the situation lead me to conclude that rule of law has reached the performing level, at least to the extent that we can influence the outcome.

Security This category should probably come first, since w/o security, nothing else is possible.  Improved security has given the people of Al Anbar the room to do the ordinary things people do, such as build their lives, families and business.

Our talks with people during market walks indicate a significant increase in confidence since the last assessment in May.   We often hear that security is not an issue, and people are more worried about things such as traffic tie ups or sewer backups.What I wrote during the last assessment still goes.  The already good security situation in Western Al Anbar continued to improve.  Insurgents and terrorists have been largely marginalized and/or pushed out of the urban areas into the deserts.  While significant potential threat still exists, the numbers of attacks are way down.  Businesses are opening and people are rebuilding in the obvious belief that security is better. 

The IA is more professional and able to carry out independent operations with only some operational and logistical support from CF.  PSF is aggressively going after terrorists and insurgents outside the berms.  They also have performed independent raids, which have disrupted and netted insurgents and prevented attacks.
 The IP in Western Anbar have become much more confident and competent.   They are developing leads, doing investigations and catching bad guys on their own with significant success.  There are now plans to refine and improve cooperation and interoperability among local departments.  This includes links such as joint coordination centers, which will help the districts be responsive on regional issues and address the problems of seams, as well as integrate the IP, PSF and IA for better cooperation.

OverallI believe that we have succeeded in Western Iraq.  That does not mean that our job is completely finished or that Iraq is finished. 

We will still need to provide “security of last resort”.  The Iraqis can maintain routine security, but they will still need help with big threats.  This is not necessarily an extraordinary situation.  We often overlook the fact – precisely because it is so pervasive – to this day most European countries, Japan, Korea etc do not have the capacity to handle ALL their security requirements.  America, for good or ill, is the security source of last resort for many countries around the world.  Iraq will be no different. Iraq is also not a developed country.  It will take a lot of investment and years of work to bring the country up to a level we would consider acceptable.   But this is the job of the Iraqis.  We cannot do it for them and nobody should think that we should even try. They have the resources.  Iraqis are intelligent and hard working people.  We can help.  We can act as partners, as we still do around the world.  Partnership is a two-way relationship.   The Iraqis can learn from us and benefit from the relationship and we can do the same from and for them. 

I often tell my Iraqi friends that partnership does not mean we agree on everything.  We are not insulted when they express opinions at odds with ours.  Sometimes they are right.  In a good partnership, each party benefits from the strengths and compensates for the weaknesses of the others.  If they were both identical, there would be no need for the partnership and it would produce no synergy.  Partnership is what we want with the Iraqis and I think that is what we are getting.

News From the RCT

I spent my day writing reports, but I have included below news from the RCT.   Enjoy the variety.

“Life is like a wheel”
Iraqi battalion takes the reins 

8/31/2008  By by Cpl. Ryan Tomlinson, Regimental Combat Team 5AL-ANBAR PROVINCE, Iraq — A group of brave Iraqi men fighting to create a better Iraq recently assumed control of an area in western al-Anbar province from 2nd Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion, Regimental Combat Team 5.

Prior to assuming control of the area near the city of Rutbah, Iraqi soldiers with 3rd Battalion, 29th Iraqi Army Brigade worked hand and hand with 2nd LAR Bn.

http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/Iraqibattaliontakesthereins.aspx
Doctors visit Sudanese refugees 

8/31/2008  By Cpl. Ryan Tomlinson, Regimental Combat Team 5  AL-ANBAR PROVINCE, Iraq — AL-ANBAR PROVINCE, Iraq  – A large group of Sudanese refugees living in tents here were visited by a group of friendly faces Aug. 25.

Marines and sailors with 2nd Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion, Regimental Combat Team 5 visited the community of Sudanese refugees near Al Waleed, Iraq, which is on the Iraq-Jordan border, to provide them with healthcare Aug. 25.http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/DoctorsvisitSudaneserefugees.aspx

From ‘grunt’ to civil affairs, Marine shows commitment 8/28/2008  By Lance Cpl. Paul Torres, Regimental Combat Team 5

RAWAH, Iraq — RAWAH, Iraq  — The phrase, “Once a Marine, always a Marine,” usually refers to the discipline, high standards and work ethic that are carried on by Marines to the civilian sector when they depart the service.But as Cpl. Darnell G. Liesinger, 24, a civil affairs team member with Civil Affairs Team 5, Detachment 1, 2nd Battalion, 11th Marine Regiment, Regimental Combat Team 5, discovered, this can also mean putting a hold on civilian life and returning to service.

http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/From%E2%80%98grunt%E2%80%99tocivilaffairs,Marineshowscommitment.aspx
Marines, LEP work together 

8/28/2008  By Cpl. Erik Villagran, Regimental Combat Team 5

HIT, Iraq — HIT, Iraq – Marines with 3rd Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment, Regimental Combat Team 5 and the battalion’s law enforcement professional is working closely to prosecute criminals in Iraq.
Roger Parrino, the battalion’s LEP, serves as the criminal investigator for the battalion and uses his background in law enforcement to assist Coalition forces. His 21 years in the New York Police Department helped him prepare for the job. He retired as the commanding officer of the Manhattan North Homicide Squad.


http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/Marines,LEPworktogether.aspx
Mike Battery lights up the night 

8/26/2008  By Cpl. Ryan Tomlinson, Regimental Combat Team 5AL-ANBAR PROVINCE, Iraq — The enemy can’t hide in the dark if the night sky is lit up like a light bulb.

Marines with Mike Battery, 3rd Battalion, 14th Marine Regiment, 2nd Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion, Regimental Combat Team 5 support the service members conducting patrols through the city Rutbah, Iraq, by firing illumination rounds from M-777 Howitzers to discourage insurgent activity after the sun goes down.

http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/MikeBatterylightsupthenight.aspx
Trackers shift gears, serve as heliborne reaction force 

8/25/2008  By Sgt. M. Trent Lowry, Regimental Combat Team 5AL ASAD AIR BASE, Iraq — AL ASAD AIR BASE, Iraq (August 23, 2008) – Marines with Company A, 4th Assault Amphibian Battalion, Multi-National Force – West have epitomized the ability of Marines to adapt and overcome by serving outside of their normal military occupational specialty duties in order to bring safety and security to Iraq.

Marines with 4th AA Bn. are trained to operate the Assault Amphibian Vehicle in ship-to-shore missions and embody the Marine Corps’ amphibious approach to warfare.  Since deploying to Iraq, the Marines from this reserve battalion haven’t even seen an AAV in operation.

http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/Trackersshiftgears,serveashelibornereactionforce.aspx
Iraq-Syrian border berm complete 

8/23/2008  By Cpl. Shawn Coolman, Regimental Combat Team 5

AL-ANBAR PROVINCE, Iraq — A new berm project, which stretches along the entire Iraq and Syrian border, was completed by Support Platoon, Company A, 3rd Combat Engineer Battalion, Regimental Combat Team 5 Aug. 23.
 

Marines surveyed approximately 160,000 yards of ground and searched for gaps in the berm, which serves as a barrier, and added roughly 30,000 yards of berm to the border. It took Support Platoon almost two weeks to complete the project.http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/Iraq-Syrianborderbermcomplete.aspx

‘Warloards’ help city of Rawah grow 8/25/2008  By Lance Cpl. Joshua Murray, Regimental Combat Team 5

RAWAH, Iraq — After nearly three years of Marine Corps units operating out of the Rawah Iraqi Police Station, the “Warlords” of Company F, Task Force 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marine Regiment, Regimental Combat Team 5 have officially demilitarized the building and returned it to the city Aug. 12.

The Marines have moved just minutes away to Combat Outpost Rawah and will continue to support law-enforcement operations here as needed by the local governing officials and Iraqi Police Force.

http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/%E2%80%98Warloards%E2%80%99helpcityofRawahgrow.aspx
Route clearance: back to the basics 

8/22/2008  By Cpl. Shawn Coolman, Regimental Combat Team 5AL-ANBAR PROVINCE, Iraq — Treading lightly with eyes wide open is an essential ability to have while marking and detonating minefield locations in Iraq. 

Service members with Route Clearance Platoon, Company A, 3rd Combat Engineer Battalion, Regimental Combat Team 5 marked two known minefields and detonated six mines on the Iraq and Syrian Border Aug. 10-22. http://www.marines.mil/units/marforpac/imef/1stmardiv/5thregiment/rct5/Pages/Routeclearancebacktothebasics.aspx

Infrastructure in Iraq

More on Infrastructure in Iraq at this Link. 

I got an invitation to speak to the American Society of Civil Engineers at a meeting in Arlington, VA on November 18 about infrastructure in Iraq.  They still wanted me to speak even after learning that I was not an engineer.  I think it will be interesting for me and I hope for them.   There is a general misconception that Iraq is being rebuilt from war damage from the CF invasion in 2003.  The problem is older and deeper.

Above is a kid swimming in the Euphrates.  Notice the old and picturesque bridge ruins in the background.  I don’t know when that bridge fell down, but it was not recently.  Below is a recently built bridge. Notice the narrowness and temporary nature.  We were afraid out MRAP would fall through. The bluish tint is because I took the picture through the MRAP window.  We did not fall through.

If damage from the 2003 war was our problem, the place would be much farther along.  Modern weapons are very accurate and there was nothing like the damage people imagine from seeing photos from WWII.  In fact, the most serious damage to Iraq’s infrastructure came from mismanagement and sanctions, especially during the 1990s. This damage is less spectacular but more pernicious and a lot harder to address, not least because we are talking about the need to build and repair human, as well as physical, capital.  You can build a new plant in a couple of months.  It takes many years to “build” a manager to direct the business or an engineer to run the equipment.  And it may take a generation to create the maintenance culture that keeps it working.

The organizer asked me to write a brief intro & bio for their newsletter.  This is the unedited version that I submitted.  I expect they will change and improve it for their publication.   I will also do a bit more research for the actual presentation.

Reconstruction in Western Iraq

The U.S. is helping Iraq recover from years of conflict, sanctions, isolation and mismanagement.  The most obvious recent damage to Iraqi facilities comes from the Iraq war and the vicious insurgency that followed.  The rot had set in before that, however.  Iraq’s infrastructure was badly compromised by years of sanctions, socialist planning and lack of maintenance. Western Iraq has most of what it needs to move forward, but much of it just doesn’t work right.   Foreign contractors and firms built virtually all the infrastructure in Western Iraq, most of it before the mid-1980s.  Many of these contractors were from communist Eastern Europe, and we all know the level of quality during there at that time.  Add to that decades of neglect and you get an idea of the challenge. 

The last twenty years were lost decades.  Human and physical capital was neglected. Little was built or properly maintained and few people were adequately trained.  We often find that the only people with the skill to keep the machines and facilities running even at the today’s inadequate levels are already at or approaching retirement age with few competent successors in the pipeline.  The best thing for Iraq would be for competitive international firms to invest, bringing modern management methods and cultures of quality and maintenance, training Iraqis in quality control and maintenance methods.  Some of this is beginning to happen.  Coalition forces and various USG sponsored programs are also training a new generation and the Iraqi authorities are beginning to step up.  Rebuilding is happening.  Nevertheless, we face a gap. 

The oil bonanza means Iraq can buy materials and skills to upgrade its infrastructure.  The risk is that, as in the past, the central authorities might buy these things without internalizing the methods to produce and maintain them.   All things considered, Iraq is a rich country and I believe the Iraqi people will soon reap significant benefits form their country’s wealth, but progress will not be easy or uniform.


John Matel is a career Foreign Service Officer with the Department of State.  He recently returned from a year-long tour of duty in Iraq, where he served as leader of the Provincial Reconstruction Team for Western Al Anbar Province, embedded with the 5th Marine Combat Regiment at Al Asad, Iraq.  Beyond the State Department, Mr. Matel owns and manages a small commercial forest operation in Brunswick County Virginia.

Above – same kid in the river, closer view.

Profile in Courage

Choosing to do the surge was really a profile in courage for George Bush and General Petraeus.  After the political passion, sound and fury calms down, I think that GW Bush will enjoy a revaluation, much like Harry Truman, and historians will say that in David Petraeus Bush finally found his general, much like Lincoln and Grant.   We forget how dicey it was in 1864 and how close we came to a different result in that conflict and how many of the arguments made today are not new.*   War is always hard and it is natural for people to look for faster ways out.  Sometimes these short cuts end my being the long way around.

Below – this guy has a sweet seat, but I wonder how fast he can turn his lazy-boy lounger if he gets in trouble.  I didn’t see if he had the cup-holder feature.

This recent article from the NYT shows how dicey it was back in 2006.   “Expert opinion” said that we had lost.  Many people were calling for us to cut our losses and run out.  Almost nobody believed the surge would accomplish the stated goals.   The easy choice would have been to go along with that conventional wisdom.   That would have meant that many of our friends in Iraq would be dead and we would suffer a resurgence of terrorism, but conventional wisdom would have accepted that as regrettable necessity.

BTW – the article I linked is NYT, but that paper remains still defeatist on Iraq, as this editorial shows.  Of course, they are already modifying their understanding in the face of objective reality and I think that in the ripeness of time, they also will come around and pretend they always knew the truth.

Below is the signing ceremony with the gaggle of journalists

Today I went to the Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) ceremony in Ramadi, where we handed authority back the Iraqi authorities in Anbar.  Anbar!  In 2006 this province was a lost cause.  Today our ceremony just marked a milestone on path so well established I doubt that many people will even take notice. 

Below – you see that MRAP riding is not very much fun.  I try to avoid that seat.  I guess he just hopes the gunner didn’t have the burrito at chow.  

I would write more re the ceremony, but there isn’t really much to write.  I met a lot of my contacts there – saw & was seen.  Speeches were long.  It was really hot. Iraqis don’t seem to have learned how to organize a good marching band.  You would think there would be something like that at an important ceremony, but no.  I have included pictures throughout.  I would have liked a little more pomp and circumstance, but it was a proud day for the Iraqis and a vindication for us.   I guess I am less excited about it because it is anticlimactic.  The turnover just made official what we (the Iraqis and us) were doing already. 

It is also the first day of Ramadan, so there was no meal with the ceremony.   That saved much time for all of us, but there is something about having a meal together that seems to finalize a deal.   We all just kind of wandered off and went home.  It seemed odd.

BTW2 – A good article re Iraq came out in Foreign Affairs.  I recommend you read it at this link.

This is the good line from it:  “But if the United States can maintain a substantial force in Iraq through the critical period of the next two to three years, there is now a credible basis for believing that major drawdowns after that can be enabled by success rather than mandated by failure.”

Below – Marines playing volleyball in 110 degree heat.  It is a dry heat and there is plenty of water.

Foreign Affairs also has a very good article re general American image and problems at this link.

Below is the Ramadi bend in the river from the back of theCH53

* Follow that link to the 1864 Democratic Party platform.

The Haunted Temple

Above – The Euphrates looking north and west. 

Our Iraqi friends told us that there was an ancient temple, cursed & haunted by a gin/ghost nearby, so of course we had to go see it.  It sounds like the beginning of a ghost movie.  You know the story line.  The local guys warn us re the ghost.  We don’t believe in ghosts and boldly go.  The ghost catches everybody one-by-one.  It didn’t work out that way because there really are no ghosts, but maybe the gin got us after all.  It was a lot farther away than we thought, over wrenching roads.  But when we finally got there the view of the Euphrates was beautiful and the place interesting.

Below is the temple mound

Unfortunately, our hosts really didn’t know much about the site.   They told me that it was not only that they didn’t know, but that it was unknown.   Archaeologists had not properly studied the place.  There had been some looting, however, and they did send some shards to Baghdad to be studied.   They told me that the shards were Assyrian and said that they were from around 2000 BC.  This means they are from the middle bronze age, what they call the old Assyrian period, when the Assyrians were establishing trade routes, but before they established their empire.  But I don’t know if the information was reliable. 

I studied ancient history, but I really don’t know much re the practical work of archeology.  The site looked to me like the remains of an ancient city with maybe a ziggurat making up the highest point.  The soil underfoot was not like the nearby soil.   My guess (and it is only a guess) is that this is a multi-layered ancient city.   Around here, they built with mud brick.  When the bricks wore out and the city filled with trash, they simply leveled the buildings and built on top.  Over the course of centuries, the cities rose about the neighboring landscape.  Archeologists can dig into the mounds and date the artifacts according to layers.  Ancient Troy had nine layers.  When Heinrich Schliemann dug into the mound, he thought he found Priam’s treasure.   He was mistaken – wrong level – but he did open the site to further exploration.

Below – this guy was interested in history and told us what local people knew re the place.

Someday, I suppose, they will excavate this mound.  It doesn’t seem like a very important place, but in ancient history you never know.   Sometimes seemingly small discoveries cause paradigm shifts in how we view history.  I saw lots of shards of pottery, pieces of bone and what looked like a shearing knife, but I have no idea if these things are ancient remains, the debris of somebody’s goat grab from last year or some of each.

Someday, I suppose, they will excavate this mound.  It doesn’t seem like a very important place, but in ancient history you never know.   Sometimes seemingly small discoveries cause paradigm shifts in how we view history.  I saw lots of shards of pottery, pieces of bone and what looked like a shearing knife, but I have no idea if these things are ancient remains, the debris of somebody’s goat grab from last year or some of each.

MRAPs, Travel & Detainees

MRAPs can resist IED explosions, but they are very heavy and uncomfortable to ride in.  You feel every bump, the air conditioning cannot keep the vehicle even reasonably cool on sunny days and there is no room to stretch out your feet.  I bet they will have to come up with a replacement for this vehicle, one that can go off road without making an omelet of everybody sitting in the back.

We went to see a police station.  In the jail they had some terrorists they had recently caught. I was happy to for the diligence of the local authorities.  I don’t understand these guys.  Some brag that they would gladly kill people like me along with dozens of the local children given a chance. I take no pleasure in seeing these guys in jail and I avoid going in if I can.  They are mostly young, stupid guys.   Some older, clever bad-guy has convinced them to do this evil thing and has ruined their lives and destroyed their futures.  It is sad all around.  The face of evil is not always ugly or easily identified.

Of course we have different sorts of terrorists.  The really bad ones are usually foreign fighters from various other countries around the Middle East.   They are professional.  Life has become shorter and much more difficult for them in Iraq and this is good.   Their goal is to hurt Americans and they will go where they think they can do so easiest.  If not here or Afghanistan, it might be Europe or America.   They are just bad and every one of them killed or captured in Iraq is one that won’t be plying his nefarious trade elsewhere.  I have no regrets about them getting what they deserve.

The Iraqis involved in this sort of thing are often sadder cases.  They are usually dumb young men, whose families really had no use for them or, more cruelly but correctly stated, they had more value as dead martyrs than live losers.   Many don’t seem to have actually figured out the real meaning of what they were getting into.  As the insurgency increasing overlaps with ordinary crime, they are coming more and more to resemble young gang members.   I am really glad that they are taken out of society and put where they can cause no harm, but the whole thing is a human tragedy on all sides and I cannot feel triumphant or vindicated in most cases.   I wouldn’t make a good judge.

The Wisdom of Solomon

Below are coats of arms painted on the plywood walls of Camp Rawah

It always amuses me that private businesspeople come to government officials for advice about business issues.  What do guys who work for the government, who never met a payroll and have retirements backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government know about the risks & rewards of business?

Some authorities & businessmen in Baghdadi were at odds with a general contractor who does jobs around there and on Al Asad.   They all asked us (the Marines and me) to intercede.   In the interests of literally keeping the peace, we did.

The big complaints involved the contractor not hiring enough local guys, not buying enough from local vendors and not paying either vendors or workers on time.  It reminded of the ward/union boss problems you might face in an old industrial establishment.  I could almost hear the familiar accents.  I was “protected”  by Longshoremen’s Local 815 when I loaded cement in Milwaukee (we inland residents loading cement onto flatbed trucks and railroad cars were longshoremen, BTW, because our products arrived on the waters of the Kinnickinnic River.)  Those guys with the big forearms would have understood this situation.

Below – More coats of arms

We repeated a few platitudes and praise for all participants and the local guys went at it.   It was evident that the biggest single problem was the lack of a reliable banking function.  This is a cash-only-economy.  Workers and contractors are paid in actual currency, which is sometimes hard to get and move in large quantities.  Sometimes payments were late because there just was no cash available.   One of the Baghdadi guys said that Warka Bank was soon to open a branch in Baghdadi – WITH an ATM.  As the significance of this portentous development sunk in, attitudes softened.

After a couple hours it was clear that the problem was not really one of blatant bad faith or dishonesty, but just a failure to communicate.   One of the Baghdadi guys said as much lamenting that when the contractor comes to town, “he doesn’t stop by and pay his respects.”   Now I was picturing Marlon Brando in “the Godfather.”

So much of business is just relationships with people.  We pretend we behave rationally and we often convince ourselves that we do, but we don’t.   Something like conspicuously paying respects can mean the difference between smooth coasting and crashing on the rocks, between deals done and deals lost, around here maybe even the difference between living and dying.    

The lesson here is that people will often work things out among themselves if they are provided a safe venue and someone perceived as a powerful neutral party (like the Marines & me) who flatters one side and then the other and tells them how reasonable they are.  Maybe the Wisdom of Solomon comes mostly from just having Solomon’s job… and the patience to listen for a long time to everybody’s problems. 

String of Emeralds

It is not a surprise that Iraqis have plans to hold back their advancing desert and control the clouds of dust and I am glad that they “stole” my idea before I even had it.  We had an exciting time talking to like minded Iraqis.   All the differences of culture and history melted away when we talked about how to get trees to grow in the desert, hold back the sands and conserve water resources.   I guess I am a little nerdy that way, but so were my Iraqi friends.

Below – Outstanding in their field.  This is the experimental tree farm near Anah.  I am standing in front of a seven year old pistachio tree.   There are also olives, dates, poplars, cedars and pines.  So far, the olives, dates and pistachios are most successful.

Plans to set up a string of oases were put on hold by the many conflicts Iraq suffered and provoked over the last generation.  The old man I talked to got his agricultural education in Belgium a long time ago.   He lamented the lost time and the encroaching desert, but what he felt most acutely was the isolation.  Iraqi scientists lost contact with the rest of the world, during the Saddam tyranny and sanctions.   They were unable to properly contribute to and benefit from the advance of knowledge in preserving arid lands, so their level of expertise is more than twenty years old.  A lot has happened since then.

For example, the Iraqi scientist explained that the Chinese had done a lot of practical research in controlling moving sand dunes.  Sand dunes can swallow fields and whole villages.  Dunes are almost impossible to hold back by physical means alone.   You can build all the walls you want and they just crawl over.  Just shaping a dune with bulldozers is a waste of time; planting vegetation on moving sand is ineffective.  A combination of physical and biological means, however, can make hold them in place, or at least slow their movement. 

We talked about the dust.   As I mentioned in an earlier post, I suspected that the dust we experience in Anbar is not part of the natural environment and that properly managed and conserved land would not produce these sorts of dust storms.   The Iraqi scientist confirmed this.  They had figures that showed the effects of land management on the dust.   (The texts were in Arabic, but they assured me that is what they said.)  And they had a simple plan to counteract the worst of the problem. 

Below – the guy with the blue stripped shirt is the honcho of the project.   

The Iraqis want to do what we did.   During the great depression and the dust bowl, plans were made to plant a series of windbreaks from Canada to Mexico.   They never succeeded in finishing the whole plan, but the windbreaks did help moderate the erosion problem.   They experimented with trees that would grow on the bleak, windswept plains.    One of the relics of this is the Denbigh Experimental Forest in North Dakota, which was established in 1931 and is still growing today in a place where trees had not grown before since the end of the last ice age.  It is only around one square mile, but after 77 years, you might call it a success.

The Iraqis I talked to would like to plant a series of oases all across the desert around 20km apart.  They told me that they estimated that it would cost around $300,000 each to establish plantations the size of the one I saw near Anah.  They require irrigation and care until established, but once established they are more or less self sufficient.  As their experience grows and they see which trees do best in the environment, presumably the survivability will improve.  

Lots of countries have challenges of dry lands.   Many see shortages of clean water as the biggest predicament of the next century.   Now that the dark days of the Saddam times are finished, Iraqis can take advantage of what others have learned.  And when they share their knowledge with the rest of the world, we all we be better for it.

Our job, more specifically Dennis Neffendorf’s job, will be to find contacts and put our Iraqi friends back in touch to the extent we can help.   My guess is that tree nerds and conservationists around the world will be excited and want to renew these contacts. 

It will be an easy sell.

Again with Anah

Several members of the ePRT and representative of the RCT made a follow up visit to Anah, since I promised the mayor that I would come back with some experts to address particular things we had discussed.  It is a follow up.  Some of this entry will be similar to my entry re a couple weeks ago. Bear with me.

Below is one of my colleagues.   His firm (RTI) gave him that gear.  I think it is Wehrmacht surplus.  It may have been a joke.  It is the Darth Vader gear and the black color soaks up the hot Iraqi sun.

After Al Qaim, Anah is the best run city in our AO.   Some of the reasons are clear.  Anah’s mayor is someone who is competent, honest and who loves his city. The people of Anah mostly have come from someplace else, if for no other reason than that Anah physically moved around twenty years ago when the waters of Lake Qadisiya inundated the old city site.  They are less tied to tribal loyalties and tradition than the inhabitants of most other areas in Anbar.

Below – Anah mosque.

During our last visit, the mayor mentioned that Anah do not suffer the energy problems endemic across Iraq.   I asked the mayor some follow up questions about how they do it.  Like every other city in Anbar, Anah draws power from nearby Hadithah Dam and like every other city in Anbar; it does not get enough to satisfy full demand 24/7 and must rely on local generation capacity.    At this point Anah differs from all the others in that the authorities meter the electricity and charge for it.   This both controls demand and increases supply by encouraging and paying for new capacity.

A contrasting example reveals contours of the situation.  The city council chairman in Hit, who cried to us about how the lack of electrical power was making the people of his city suffer and demanded that WE do something to solve his problem, told me that the people of Hit already pay what he considered a lot for electricity; they pay a flat rate of 2000 dinar.  With 2000 dinar, you can buy four cans of Coca-Cola equivalent at the market down the street, BTW.   Of course, a flat rate does nothing to encourage wise use and a flat rate that low, which most people avoid paying anyway, is a joke.   Unfortunately, it is a bad joke and it is told everyday across Iraq, but not in Anah.   The Mayor of Anah told me that a family in his city pays between 10,000 and 20,000 dinar a month AND it is a variable rate.    He does the same thing with water.  People get a basic amount free and after that pay a variable rate.

One weakness of Anah is its lack of bench strength.   Al Qaim has an excellent mayor, but he also has attracted and developed talented associates.   There are many people who could carry on.  Anah still depends too much on one heartbeat.   A related weakness is the dependence on the mayor’s political leadership in general.  The mayor is a hands-on kind of guy who knows and is involved in all the projects going on in his community.  Many of these projects should not be managed by government at any level.   To his credit, the mayor understands this too.

Below – ePRT team member in Anah

We revisited some of the big projects such as the dairy farm, chicken operation, fish hatchers and ecological restoration (which I willl talk about in a future post).   We met some experts who were waiting for us at the projects and the mayor shared his vision of Anah as a center for agricultural and agricultural innovation.    One of the experts told us that Iraq has once produced enough chicken to satisfy 95% of the domestic demand.  Today that statistic is reversed, with Iraqi production accounting for around 5% of demand.  Iraqis are very fond of chicken, so this is important.   Everybody agreed that Anah could become a center for food production and that they have already made many of the first steps.  Unfortunately, so far this has been an all government sponsored enterprise. 

The Mayor said that he prefers private investment and that he hoped that sometime soon that private investment would take over.  For the time being, however, there is no private investment screaming to invest in Anah and the city might have to go through a kind of socialist stage.  Given the small size and local nature of this activity, Anah may avoid some of the most pernicious aspects of state sponsored enterprise and with any luck the politician can and will get out of the business at the earliest opportunity.

In the distance from the agricultural projects we could see the edge of Reyanah.  It will not be long before Anah and Reyanah will merge.   Reyanah is growing rapidly with influx and natural increase from the local Jughafi tribe.  The two cities have significantly differently problems and populations.  It will provide an interesting challenge for all involved.

Rawah is another interesting study in contrasts.   Rawah is a 45 minute MRAP drive north and west of Anah.  A drive in a normal car at a normal speed would get you there in fifteen minutes. We refer to the area as Rawah/Anah, but the two jurisdictions could not be more different.   The mayor is a man of substance; he evidently weighs more than 300 lbs.  He is jolly, laughing inappropriately – in a Jabba the Hutt style – to try to bridge over questions about his competence or honesty, but Rawah is a depressing place despite the advantages of its physical setting and in the surrounding countryside, which include excellent soil, access to water and a beautiful natural location.  The mayor has focused on agriculture and tourism as the keys to his city’s future, but has taken no steps to encourage or facilitate either of these things except to ask Coalition Forces to build a hotel for the city.   CF declined the opportunity.   Eventually Rawah’s natural gifts and its location between a thriving Al Qaim and a probably soon to be thriving Anah will come into play.  Perhaps the people can either get new leadership or trump the bad leadership with their energy.    

Political leaders really cannot create jobs or prosperity.  They can foster the conditions that will allow the people to do that for themselves, and some do it better than others.   They can also be strong barriers to progress when they don’t do their jobs right.   Iraq has examples of both kinds of leaders.  I believe the good leadership and the energy of the people will determine the future, but the bad guys will be with us always too.   

In other words, Iraq will become a normal country in more ways.