Three Hard Men

I talked to three of the toughest men I have ever met during separate meetings this week. Each had fought the insurgents in his own way, taking great personal risks and having the wounds and lost family to show for it.   And each is trying to integrate into the new Iraq in his own way. 

One told us that he sees the future of Iraq as a country that integrates all sorts of Iraqis, regardless of ethnicity or tribe.   The Iraqi nation should stand over all.  He reminded us that he spoke also as a tribal leader when he said that the rule of law must come above the power of tradition and tribe.  The commitment, energy and bravery of the tribal sheiks was essential to staunching the violence in Western Anbar and they could still play an important role in the future, but that role should be based on their merit and abilities, not their power over tribal members.  

Below is a Euphrates River fish served during one of our meetings.  It is a carp, but tastes okay.

We talked a little about why the tribes had been so important and agreed that in times of trouble people turn to more basic institutions such as religion and family.   The tribes were a place where people could better trust loyalties.  As the security and prosperity of Iraq returns, people will have other places to turn and there will be a natural turning to the institutions of civil society.  At least that is the hope.  The chief might be interested in running for political office himself, although he did not say so to us.A senior police officer also told his compelling personal story.   He was a cop before the war and found himself out of a job after the fall of Saddam.  He says that he went into the vegetable business, i.e. growing and selling tomatoes, cucumbers and melons.  It fed his family and kept him out of trouble. 

He stayed out of the security game until AQI insurgents tortured and murdered his little brother. He seemed compelled to explain in detail, which I won’t repeat.  After that he and his cousins started to “disrupt”  the insurgents during nighttime raids.  They would also report insurgent positions to Coalition Forces, enabling them to deal with forces too powerful for the family group to handle. As the IP became better organized, he returned to service and has been there ever since.  His aspiration in life is to do what he is doing: working as an honest cop.  It is not easy, he says.  He has lots of offers of money, but he is working hard to build a professional force.  Our surprise visit to his IP installation seemed to confirm that.   They had just run down some oil smugglers and morale was high.   In some ways, this guy stands our like Eliot Ness in prohibition era Chicago. There are lots of bad guys still around, but he is making a difference. Below is one of the smuggler’s trucks.  They call them Bongo trucks.  I don’t know why.

Our third friend made his name by telling it to all the terrorists.   He literally posted his name and where he lived and challenged the insurgents to come and get him.   They tried.  He is still standing; those who tried to take him down are not.  Someday they will make a movie about it.  His dilemma is one of how does a warrior integrate into a peaceful society when things settle down?   

The stories these three men tell point to the general challenge in Western Anbar.  Stability has come quicker than many people thought possible.  Some arrangements made during the dark and deadly times are not appropriate for the new day that is dawning across the province.  The old saying that yesterday’s solutions are today’s problems is applicable here.  And it is not limited to the questions of war and peace.   Everybody has to adapt to the new situation.

ePRT & Friends & Cetera

I like the idea of leverage.  Our ePRT is small, but we can do a lot by working with partners.  More and more we are using our money and expertise as “pump priming*” that gets other efforts going and funds flowing.   The ePRT money is reckoned in the thousands.   Our partners spend more money, but sometimes our involvement helps lead the way.

The biggest USG player in Western Anbar is the military with its CERP (commanders emergency response program).  In the last year, we have also seen I-CERP, which is the same program but using money allocated by the Iraqi government.   CERP is used mostly for reconstruction after war damage.  Since there is less of this left to be done and as our forces come home, there will be less and less CERP needed or available. 

AID funds some effective programs in Western Anbar.  The Community Stabilization Program (CSP) is a $544 million program designed to enhance economic and social stability in Iraq.  CSP has offices in Al Qaim, Hadithah and Hit.  In each place, they employ around eighty Iraqis to do various hometown projects.  Our other big programs are the Community Action Program (CAP), which  promotes grassroots democracy and better local governance and the Local Governance Program (LGP) trains local officials in the essential skills of governance and the delivery of municipal services.  All these programs put Iraqis out front.  I like the idea that our programs have an Iraqi face, but I also worry a little about that same thing.  I think that we Americans are often too willing -almost eager – to hide our good work.  I am willing to share credit;  I know we have to get Iraqis in the lead and I understand that we have to avoid the heavy hand, but sometimes I think we hide so well that nobody knows we are doing these things at all.  The guys at CSP et al assure me that the right people know where the resources are coming from; I am not so sure and people forget.

Sometimes I would just like to stamp the Great Seal of the United States into some of the concrete we pay to spread – have it set in stone.  Maybe I will make that happen, at least in a few places.   Memory fades; stone endures.

Some USG funded programs happen almost completely outside my purview, i.e. I am aware of them, but we rarely interact.  The one I like the best is Tijara, which gives microfinance loans to small Iraqi businesses.  Small loans were very successful in Eastern Europe (the Polish-American Enterprise Fund actually turned a profit while doing good) and a guy in Bangladesh won the Nobel Prize for his work there.  Small loans work in development.  Small loans are usually better than grants because they have the idea of pay-back, reciprocity.   People work harder when they work for themselves and make their own decisions.   The repayment rate for these loans is excellent.

The thing I like most about the small loan programs is the money goes to PRIVATE business.  One of the biggest faults of most government programs, ours included, is that they tend to fund government and non-profit projects.  

Most of the wealth of a modern society is created by the private sector.   That is why so much foreign aid actually causes more harm than good.  It puffs up the bureaucratic sector at the expense of the entrepreneurs.  In the most pernicious case, it merely creates a exploitive kleptocracy, living off foreign largess and playing the PC victim games.    I have been very careful here, but I suppose my record is mixed.  The nature of government programs creates certain constraints.  The loan program, in contrast,  has a natural check on its own behavior.  The guys taking the loans have to pay them back.  That means they must be in a useful or profitable.

Inma is the USAID funded agricultural program.  We are trying to get them to help with a green zone in Anah.  Beyond that, we have little interaction. 

The Iraqis themselves have begun to step up and the activity of the Iraqi authorities is growing rapidly.  In the last year, the Iraqis have outspent us 5.5:1 and their spending is rising as ours falls.  This is a good and natural outcome.   The Iraqis have piles of money from surging oil revenues and there are plenty of useful places to spend it around here.  What is really surprising and appalling is the poverty and the terrible state of the infrastructure.   Iraq was one of the richest oil producers for generations. With all that money pouring in over fifty years, they managed to build less and more poorly than a place like Jordan, which has no such resource.   I expect the new government to do better than the Baathists.  Geography and climate dictate that Anbar will never be a really nice place, but it could and should be better developed.  And Iraq should take its rightful place as the keystone of the Middle East.

Below – you can grow grass in Iraq, but I have never seen a lawn so green.

* BTW – I recently read the mindset list  re what college kids have experienced (or not).  This year’s freshmen college students, for example, have never lived under a president who was not named Bush or Clinton.   Anyway, I am more conscious of the outdated nature of some of my phrases and analogies.  Priming the pump is a historical phrase and few of us have ever actually done it.   It means putting some water onto a dry water pump which helps create the suction to draw water from the well.  FDR used the phrase.  Yes, that was before my time too, but not so far back that I didn’t know the phrase.

Making a Life In Iraq

Few comments, just pictures.   These are some of the daily life scenes from where our Marines live and work.  You can make a home almost anywhere.

A Lot Changes in a Year

I did a telephone interview today and some of the journalist’s questions made me think – again – about this year has meant.   A lot happens in a year.  As I think about what I have accomplished and what I still can do in my last month here, I understand that the inquiry is meaningless unless it is put into context.  I need to think about what WE – my team, the Marines, the people of Anbar and our country generally – have accomplished.  

Below is a rock drill, used to figure out where vehicles or assets should go.  They usually no longer use actual rocks, but it is nice to occasionally see the old ways.

We accomplished a lot.   We have created options.  At the end of 2006, it was hard to believe success in Iraq was possible.  Some thought that our only option was to get out as soon as possible – to end the war by accepting defeat.  I disagreed at the time because the consequences of failure in Iraq were too terrible to accept, but I admit that I did not see a clear way forward.  I greeted the news of the surge with more hope than real expectation.  By the time I volunteered to go to Iraq, about a year ago, I thought that things had turned around, but I expected to be thrust into the middle of a war and I was not sure we could be successful.  I never expected that only a year later we would have almost annihilated Al Qaeda in Iraq, neutralized the insurgency and seen such progress and prosperity return to the towns of Anbar – back then called the most dangerous place on earth.  Of course, I didn’t really know the Marines so well back then and I didn’t know the people of Anbar at all.  THEIR achievements have been astonishing.   

The next president doesn’t have to promise to end the war in Iraq.  In fact, nobody can any longer promise to end the war.  We – the big we I referenced above – have done that already.  The United States faced down an insurgency in the heart of the Middle East – and won.  I cannot say exactly when this happened.  We had no Battleship Missouri moment.  We just kind of looked around and noticed that what we had here was no longer war.  We still have terrorism and we still have criminal gangs.  We still have big challenges going forward, but if we defined these sorts of problems as war, many parts of our country would be in that condition.

The opposite of war is not automatically peace and prosperity. These things take work to achieve and maintain.   One of the biggest mistakes we can make is to believe that peace just “needs a chance.”   We are trying to build conditions that will assure a better outcome.  

Below is the Anbar sky looking straight up.  We don’t get many clouds this time of year.

The question now is how to use this victory and go forward.  We were too optimistic in the first part of the Iraq conflict.  We learned that lesson too well.  Now we are afraid to recognize legitimate success.  But correct action requires correct assessments, w/o too much pessimism or optimism.   A realistic assessment shows a situation still dangerous, but full of promise.

I am interested in history how big events pivot on small things during crucial times.  History is not determined.  There is no such thing as fate.  We all have free will.  We decide.  We make choices that determine the outcomes.  Our individual choice might be small, but we never know how much of a role we play and we all play a role.   I am more conscious of that now than I usually am.

Different choices made a couple of years ago could have resulted in a different and – IMO – a dreadful outcome for Iraq and the U.S.  Had that happened, many people would have seen that bloody and dangerous result as the natural, even inevitable outcome.  Conventional wisdom just a short time ago held that it was impossible to defeat an Islamic insurgency and that the attempt created more terrorists.  It was fatalistic position that might have led to fearful inaction.  It is true that the fight against terrorism can create more terrorists – if it is done wrong.  It is also true that weak responses to threat can also create more terrorists.  Everybody likes to be on what they see as the winning side and a successful insurgency brings more willing recruits too.  Now that we have been successful, the opposite trend is working.  And now that we are succeeding many people say our success in Iraq was just something that would have happened anyway.  This is wrong.

Bringing it back where I started – to my personal point of view – I think coming to Iraq was one of the best decisions I ever made.  I did NOT accomplish what I anticipated for me personally. I thought this would be my last assignment for the FS and that it would mark my transition to a new life.  This turned out to be OBE’d by my unexpected promotion.  I also thought time in the desert would change my outlook more than I believe it has, although that is hard for anybody to know about himself.  I feared that I would be hurt or that I would lose close friends.  Thank God, that has not happened, so far at least.  I feel good that I did my duty, but there are so many around here that have done so much more, I don’t feel really satisfied.  I met a lot of great people and experienced extraordinary events, but I guess that after all the momentous events around here; I am more or less the same. 

Iraqi Falafel

The ordinary is the extraordinary in a place like Anbar.   I was reminded of that during a recent visit to a falafel stand in Hadithah.   Instead of the usual chow hall fare, we decided to go out for lunch.  It was a big deal, requiring a convoy, but I think it was worth it.  The shop owner was delighted to have us come in and I think we contributed to the general feeling that peace and normality is returning to this recently-war-torn city.  Reports of these kinds of gestures pass by word of mouth and have strong impact on local attitudes.  Of course, we are not the first.  The Marines at the nearby camp are the ones who told us about the shop, so they presumably have eaten here too.

Here I am with a can of Rani.  Rani is a very sweet fruit-float drink.   It comes in orange, peach, lemon, pineapple, and mango flavors.  With the exception of the mango, I like it a lot, which is why I posed in the semi-advert position.  I have not seen it in America.   We got fifteen falafel sandwiches, plus Rani, for 15000 dinar, which is around fifteen dollars.  The owner said that we could have the food for free, since he was happy with the safety he now enjoyed, but we insisted on paying, which I think was his real desire too.  It was nice that he made the courteous gesture.

The owner of the falafel shop told us that he had come to Hadithah because he wanted to avoid the trouble in Baghdad, because there was more opportunity in Hadithah and because he thought it was generally a better place to live and raise a family.   This presents us with an interesting definitional dilemma.  

Is this man a refugee or an internally displaced person?  I would say no.

He is by the definition we commonly use and I am sure relief groups would count him among those they seek money to support.  But he did not flee any specific violence or persecution, according to what he told us and he does not intend to return to Baghdad, even if/when conditions significantly improve.  He is actually much more like someone who flees the crime and bad schools of a big city to start a new life in a small town.   This is not a refugee problem that will be solved because those actually involved are not really looking for a solution.  I have seen similar situation on other occasions.  It makes me skeptical every time I see a news report that set the numbers of refugees at x or y.  People move for lots of reasons and the line between a migrant and a refugee is often very broad and indistinct. 

An interesting digression involves the location of this falafel shop.   I remember the building well because it used to be the headquarters of Lima Company.  The Marines moved out a couple months ago and I guess this guy, among others, moved in.  I wonder if he is aware of the history of his location.  

My friend Major John Jarrard used to work out of this building.   He is a truly honorable man, a HS history teacher, part time Georgia farmer and Marine officer, who in the course of his tour of duty in Iraq saved a little girl’s life with an extraordinary effort to get her the treatment she needed for a heart condition. 

The falafel shop seems a lot less heroic than the Marines who were there before, but maybe not.  The shop owner faced hardships and danger and now he is starting a new life and will in his small way contribute to the peace and prosperity of his country.

That too is heroism.

Awkward in Hadithah

Below – Congressional delegation (Codel) landing at the Hadithah LZ

An awkward moment came when Hadithah Mayor Hakim announced that he hoped the Republicans would win in the fall elections.   He obfuscated a little when the Democratic Codel leader reminded him that three out of the four members of the visiting Codel were Democrats, but he didn’t back down.    His point was that he wanted America to stay in Iraq until the country was secure and he was spooked by the talk of precipitous withdrawal he heard from the U.S.   

Back in the MRAP a colleague clarified what had happened.   He recalled that when he traveled in the Balkans in the late 1990s, he found that many people favored the Democrats because they feared the Republicans would cut support.   In general, they fear a change in the American policy that has protected them – in some cases literally saved their lives – and they remember the opposition to the surge came mostly from Democrats.   Their opinions stem from a misunderstanding of American domestic politics and, ironically, overconfidence in the veracity of political statements made publicly by politicians.   They think Amerrican politicans might mean what they say.  It is another concrete example of how our domestic political squabbles spill over into our foreign relationships.

It is sort of like a domestic dispute in the big house on the hill, with all the neighbors watching and some of them taking sides.

In any case, the Democratic delegation leader assured all those present that America would not abandon its friends no matter which party won the White House this fall. 

Mayor Hakim made other, less controversial, points.  He thanked America for saving his country and hoped that Iraq would now have the good fortune of countries like Germany and Japan who, in his opinion, benefited from American occupation and attention.   The mayor favors federalism, which he sees as the only way a country as diverse as Iraq can govern itself and make most people reasonably content.   (In any case, centralized decisions making has not worked out so well for the last … oh 5000 years.)  Maybe a more bottom up system would work better.  

The city council president agreed with his mayor on most things, but disagreed about federalism.  He thought that federalism was the slippery slope to disunion.  The mayor pointed out that this showed that they enjoyed democracy in Hadithah.   The mayor and the city council could publicly disagree and, referring again to his early comment on Republicans and Democrats, everybody could speak freely.

All the Iraqis seemed to agree that Iran was a threat to Iraq and a general menace to the peace in the region.    They feared that the day the last American left Iraq would be the same day the Iranians started moving in.  The U.S. had made Iraq too weak to defend itself, they said, and should remain here until Iraq was strong enough to defend itself.

Following the meeting with city officials, the Codel went on a short walk through the market district of Hadithah.  Unfortunately, they could not walk through the main market because the streets are being repaved and sidewalks are being installed, with the help of the USAID funded IRD, BTW.   Of course, they COULD have walked past the construction, as most Hadithah shopper do, but this was precluded by security since the Marine vehicles following the pedestrians could not negotiate the construction zone.

Despite not being the main market area, the streets were lively and the people friendly.   People expressed gratitude to the U.S. for helping make the city safe again.  One individual spoke in English, saying that he had been to London many years ago and had worked in the oil industry as a young man.    When asked about security, he said that he now felt safe to go out day or night.  Only six or eight months ago everybody had to hunker down even during daylight and going out after dark was completely out of the question.

Things are much better now.

Visit to Anah

Anah Ancient and Modern

The mayor told us that Anah is a 5000 year old city built in 1985.  The site of ancient Anah now lies under the waters of Lake Qadisiya.   When the Hadithah Dam was built, the Iraqi government hired a French firm to design a new city on higher ground.   The result was a pleasant new city, with wide streets organized on Cartesian grid, which can be appreciated even through the detritus of war.  The first building was the mosque and the rest of the city was built around it.

I was surprised to learn that the mayor did not have an accurate estimate of his city’s population. He said that people were beginning to return and that the population was growing.  Anah has long been known for its educated and effective workforce. These are the people who suffered most from the recent insurgency. The insurgents specifically targeted the best educated members of the population, who they considered corrupted, westernized not sufficiently pious, or all of the above.  As a result, many of the best and brightest are either dead or living outside the region or the country.   Making matters worse, during the 1990s, the city declined as a result of the general poor conditions in Iraq.  Anah’s education level meant that many of its people COULD leave and sell their skills elsewhere, so the city declined even more precipitously than some others with less mobile workforces.  

The mayor doesn’t think the sojourning population will return anytime soon.  They have built successful lives someplace else and Iraq will offer them no corresponding opportunities in the near term.  In the longer term, however, he expects some return of the diaspora.  When people have made their fortunes, he hopes they will return to the pleasant city on the shores of Lake Qadisiya. 

The mayor was optimistic about the future.  In five years’ time, he expects Anah to have prosperity levels similar to Amman, Jordan.  Amman is not to the level of a developed world’s city, but it is significantly better off than Anah.  Anah has a long way to go, but considering how far it has come in the last couple of years, a smaller version of Amman may not be an impossible dream. 

Electrical Power

Alone among all the cities of all of Western Anbar and probably in all of Iraq, the little city of Anah does not have a significant problem with electricity shortages, at least according to what the mayor told us.   How is this possible?

The picture below shows Hadithah Dam, which supplies much of Anbar’s power and created the reservoir that drown old Anah.  Anah gets its power from the dam and from petroleum fueled generators.

Anah spells relief from energy shortages m-e-t-e-r-i-n-g.  Anah is evidently the only city w/o a significant energy problem because it is one of the few to meter effectively and charge for electricity.   Most other places electricity from the grid is essentially free, or at least not properly metered.  People have no incentive to use it wisely.  In fact, those who limit their own use of power are just chumps, as somebody else will eagerly soak up the surplus they create.  Our visits around the province have found profligate use of electrical power, when it is online, followed by bitter complains when it goes down.  We have also noticed stores full of electrical devices ranging from small appliances to big screen television sets just waiting to absorb any new power that is generated. Anbar clearly has an electricity problem.  Just as clearly, it cannot find a solution by increasing supply alone.  Electricity currently is de-facto distributed by political fiat.   Local leaders demand, persuade, cajole and perhaps do other less savory things to get a bigger share of insufficient resource.  Demand for any free product grows as rapidly as supply can keep up or, as in the case of Western Anbar, even faster.  It will be great to build more capacity and Iraq has the money to do that and this new capacity will satisfy demand only when the rest of the country behaves more like Anah.

Pushing Back the Desert

In any climate as dry as Western Iraq’s, water management is the key to success and even survival.   The Euphrates River is especially low this year from a combination of drought and increased diversions upstream in Syria and Turkey.  As you drive across the river, you can see that the bridge was built to span a much wider flow.  In some cases, the water is hundreds of yards from the evident previous banks and new islands have emerged in the middle, a profuse cover of vegetation and the presence of goat grazing it indicating that this may be more than an ephemeral anomaly.    

Low river levels create challenges for irrigation.  In many cases, pipes that once easily drew the water emerge onto dry land.  Authorities are digging wells and extending pipes as “temporary” expedients, but everyone understands that even when the rains return, upstream dams and diversions have permanently altered the shape and hydrology of the river.  The future of the Euphrates may be something like the Colorado.

But the people of Anah are not content to let the desert will expand.  We visited a project to plant trees to hold the soils and create a more benign microclimates.   Above and below are pictures of a one-year old installation and another nearby that has been growing for eight years. Our ePRT is helping these projects in a small way with advice and funds, but we cannot take credit for initiating them.  The oldest trees in this particular plantation are eight years old.   They include date palms, pistachios and olives.  The local arborists take seeds and cuttings from the most robust individuals and use them for nursery stock to expand the effort. 

The trees are currently sustained with a drip irrigation system, but once established they can usually get along on the stingy local rainfall, according to the Chief of Agricultural Engineers for the desertification reversal project.   This, BTW, is exactly what Dennis Neffendorf told me and the engineer and I had a good conversation about soils.  In many ways, the dust bowl we experienced on our own Great Plains is analogous to the current situation in Iraq.   Iraq is dryer, but as with our own case the destruction of perennial vegetation cover exacerbated a bad situation and damaged a fragile ecosystem.

The picture below shows seedlings growing in a lattice house, which protects them from the burning sun. 

We talked a little about goats, those pernicious desert making machines.   The engineer showed us perennial leafy plants (I didn’t recognize it but it sort of resembled heather) that not only can survive moderate browsing by goats, but actually require it for sustained growth.  His nursery has been propagating these plants and is hoping to cover some of the dusty expanses of the country with this green food.  Some of these plants are non-native and I did pause to recall that kudzu, crown vetch and multiflora rose were once touted by our own government experts as solutions to problems, but looking up at the desiccated dusty desolation that lies outside any man-made green zone, I think that anything is an improvement. 

Potatoes, Cows & Fish

The Anah region grows substantial amounts of potatoes.  This surprised me, since potatoes are water intensive and grow best in a loose, sandy soil very different from the hard clays and hard pan we see in Anbar.  When they explained it to me, it still seemed like it was more trouble than it was worth, but they disagreed.   The soil is indeed not suited to potato cultivation, so they change it by bringing richer, sandier soils up from the river bed.   I took a handful of it and it looked and felt like those Wisconsin or Polish soils I had seen growing rich potato crops. Of course, they also bring the water up from the river. The potato farm supervisor, told me that yields vary greatly, but that they could get 3-8 tons of potatoes from an acre. 

I doubt that he understood my point of reference and may have been talking about an Iraqi donum, which is 0.67 acre, or he may have thought I meant hectare.  It gets worse, because an Iraqi donum is much bigger than a Turkish donum … Suffice it to say, it makes a difference.  And did he think I meant short ton, long ton or metric?   Unfortunately, I didn’t think of this until after I was headed back to Al Asad.  I just assumed.  Mea culpa, I should know better.  I was reminded how hard it is communicate not only in a different language but also in a different measurement culture.  Three to eight tons an acre is a very high yield and if indeed we are talking the same measurements, I guess it makes sense to grow potatoes in the desert.   But I realize that I have a meaningless data point in my notebook and must remember not to do that again.   It doesn’t matter, since we are not doing a precise survey. All I need to know is that the Iraqis seemed satisfied with whatever yield they are getting from whatever area they are talking about and they don’t think it is a problem. 

Their problems include the need for a shade tarp and the threat of aggressive goats.  Full sunlight is not a friend around here most of the year.  Growers put up shade tarps to protect garden crops during the heat of the day.   Our Iraqi friends mentioned that their shade tarp supports were damaged.  Something else they need is a fence to protect them from marauding goats.  This latter requirement may be less effective than it seems, since the marauding goats’ owners will open it up.  In any case, they asked us to help with a grant.  We will consider it, but are disinclined at this point, since it is something the Iraqi authorities can provide.

We also visited the site of a future dairy farm/creamery complex.   When completed, the facility will produce milk, cheese, yogurt and – after a suitable interval – hamburger. Initially they will get 250 head of dairy cattle and expand as demand conditions allow.  They are currently waiting on a “green zone”, irrigated fields that will provide the fodder crop to feed the cattle.   This will be done with pivot style irrigation making those crop circles so prominent in arid places in our country.  They wisely want to get the feed production up and running before the cows come home.   This is not as clear a decision as it seems to most of us.   Planners often fail to put things in logical order and discover only afterwards that they missed a key step.   The Anah authorities have thought through all parts of the lifecycle, including proper use of manure.  The agricultural engineer also told me that they have plans to apply municipal biosolids to the pastures.

The dairy farm didn’t look like anything I remember in Wisconsin.  There will be no quaint red barns (the pictures nearby shows what the barn and milking stalls will look like) and there will never be verdant hill dotted with spotted cows.  This is much more like an industrial agricultural enterprise.  The only thing that caused me some concern was the source of management and money.  It is a state sponsored operation.   I don’t have confidence that a state run enterprise can work better in agriculture than it does anywhere else, but at this time there are no other investors willing or able to take on this sort of challenge. 

We were scheduled to visit the fish hatchers and poultry farm, but ran out of time.   Briefly speaking, the fish hatchery is meant to supply stock for local fish farms and restocking of Lake Qadisiya. Anah authorities are interested in getting QRF money to help repair and restore the hatchery.  This is probably something that will be left to the Iraqi authorities.  

Our short trip to Anah revealed a well organized and well managed town with more strengths than weaknesses; more opportunities than threats.    There is reason to be optimistic. 

A Quick Look Around Western Anbar

We discussed the state of our districts at our recent team meeting.  The good news is that progress across Western Al Anbar has been astonishing, but it is still uneven and each of the sub-districts has its own particular conditions.   Here is a general look.

Al Qaim
The saying around here is that the sun rises in the west, since Al Qaim was the first district to throw off the insurgents.  Al Qaim, which includes the regions of Husaybah, Ramanan, Karbilah and New Ubaydi, was the most advanced economically and politically, but its progress has slowed in recent months.  Our LNO there sees this not so much a problem as a simple case of diminishing returns.  It is like what happens after a forest fire. Progress is quick in the early stages of recovery but naturally slows as the region approaches a mature situation.   Al Qaim both benefits and suffers from the legacy of state investment.  The region has a big phosphate plant and a cement factory as well as a railroad repair center.  None of them are working to full capacity.  The rail center is in the process of being demilled 

The Al Qaim region has some of the richest soil in the Middle East, according to our Ag Advisor.  Beyond that, the river water at this point carries less salt and mineral, so that it takes significantly less water to sustainably produce crops here than farther downstream, where more gallon of water must be used to avoid salinity. The ePRT is working to hold an agricultural conference in September to address some agricultural issues.

Rawah/Anah
Rawah/Anah has a split personality, with Anah much better run politically and better managed in general.   However, they share the environment.  The region is heavily agricultural and agriculture has suffered from the long drought.  This is exacerbated by low water levels on the Euphrates caused not only by the drought but also by water diversions in Syria and Turkey.  The Euphrates will probably never reach the water flow it did a generation ago.  Many of the regions pumps and pipes no longer reach flowing water.  Updating agriculture is a priority here.

Hadithah
The Hadithah Triad, which includes Hadithah, Barwana and Haqlaniyah, is our success story.  When I arrived ten months ago Hadithah was a prime concern.   The RCT doubled down on the region and it became the biggest recipient of our QRF and other programs.  Earlier this year CSP opened and office there and has been very active.  Today it is thriving.  The biggest problem is growth.  We are trying to develop accurate figures, but it is clear that the Triad is experiencing a population boom.  Property values are rising and there is building everywhere you look.  Perhaps this is the bounce effect we say in Al Qaim several months ago, but for now the Triad is our shinning star.  Of course, I should add the caveat that everything is relative.   The region still suffers the paradox of high unemployment and a shortage of skilled labor, for example.

Hit
If the Triad is thriving, Hit, which includes Hit, Baghdadi, Kubaysah and Phurat, is its dark twin.  Hit suffers from especially poor and corrupt leadership at the top, which has been a significant impediment to our efforts.  The ePRT avoids all projects directly involving the mayor, which limits our reach.  On the hopeful side, the city council in Hit is basically sound and those in the satellite regions are good.  Beyond that, the rot at the top cannot hold back economic growth, which has been significant.


Our LNO in Hit reports that The attitude in Kubaysah is very positive and the people are content with the completion of several CF and ePRT projects and continuation of some others such as, the water network.  He also said that in meeting in Baghdadi with the district manager Muhanad and the city council chairman Mal-Allah both expressed their appreciation and thankfulness to the ePRT, the Marines, and the IRD for the projects and the development in the city.

Rutbah
Our biggest area geographically is Rutbah, which includes Nukhayb, Akashat, and the border ports of Waleed and Trebil.   The region borders on Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.  Rutbah is several months behind in its development.  It recently got a new and dynamic mayor and it making progress.  The biggest issue for arid and sparsely populated Rutbah is water.   Rutbah owes its existence to watering holes, but they are not extensive. The modern city grew around a British fort built in the 1920s.  At that time there was a few hundred people.   Now the population is around 30,000 and growing rapidly, which is taxing the local environment.  Rutbah has access to wells, but the pipes are inadequate. There is a big western desert project that is supposed to bring water from the Euphrates.  See above about water in the Euphrates.   Besides sheep herding, the region is important for the POEs, the borders and phosphate production.  We only recently send a permanent LNO to Rutbah and he is closely assessing the situation.  His priorities are to make sure LPG training is done all over the region and to facilitate the establishment of a regional council.

Visit & Foot Patrol in Kubaysah

We visited Kubaysah to look at projects and meet with local officials.    Kubaysah is a sub-district of Hit.  Locals complain that it is a long neglected district.  Most of the people in the region are from the Kubaisi tribe, from which the town takes its name.

Above – watermelons, odd shape, good tastePower

There is universal agreement that the big bottom line problem for Kubaysah is electrical power, follow by the related impediment of fuel supply.   While there is some uncertainty about precise numbers, everybody agrees that the population of Kubaysah has increased significantly since the 2003.  All these new people demand electricity.  Beyond that, each consumer is now pulling more power from the grid.  The mayor told us that a few years ago you could count the air conditioners in the city on one hand.   Today air-conditioning is becoming common and in this hot climate nothing stresses energy as much as air-conditioning.  Add to this all the consumer electronics you can see for sale in local shops and the challenge is apparent.    Supply will have trouble keeping up with demand even in the best case scenario and we are not dealing with the best case scenario.  Electrical generating capacity has increased only a little since the Saddam era.   It will take something like a heroic effort by Iraqi authorities to create the capacity to fill the burgeoning demand for electricity. 

The mayor of Kubaysah sees a simpler interim solution to his town’s problem.  He needs new transformers to properly take advantage of already available electricity. The town currently has a 10 MGW transformer. They need 20.   The mayor thinks the provincial government already has some.   All they need to do is bring a couple down and hook them up.   Provincial promised to do just that, but they don’t follow through. Resources pool and get stuck in Ramadi, he says.  He asked us to use our good offices to help him get what was promised.   We promised to help to the extent we can.  That is a big caveat.

Above – this guy claimed he couldn’t stand to be in the house when the air-conditioning went down.   It didn’t look like that much of a hardship.

The energy shortage came up repeatedly in discussions at the city council as well as during our foot patrol through town.  We joked that the mayor had choreographed the walk so that everybody we met would reinforce his message.   In fact, this is nothing new.  We hear it always and everywhere.

You perceive the obvious impact it when you see people sitting outside their houses because it is too hot to be inside w/o air-conditioning or when you buy that warm Coca-Cola at the local shop whose refrigerator doesn’t work, but those are superficial impacts.    Uncertain power drives up the prices of goods and makes them less available.  For example, Kubaysah is a leading producer of chickens.   Commercial chicken operations are big consumers of electricity to keep large chicken houses ventilated.   If it gets too hot, the chickens die.    You also see an impact on fresh vegetables.  Nothing grows w/o irrigation.   When electric pumps stop, so does the life-giving water, which in this climate means that weeks of work can be desiccated in days or hours.

Water

Our ostensible purpose of coming to Kubaysah in the first place was to check on some of our and CA’s projects.  The most prominent is a water project that will replace the old system of water pipes and bring clean drinking water to most of the city’s population.  

Little in terms of infrastructure or maintenance was done during the last thirty years.   The water tower pictured at the end of the road is from 1963.   Saddam spent money on arms and extravagant palaces.  Low on the priorities list were water projects with results underground and out of sight. 

The Kubaysah water system dates from the 1960s and has essentially not been maintained since.   The population outgrew the system & pipes corroded, allowing sewage to seep into the drinking water.   The CA funded project you see in the pictures is addressing this.  

The picture shows part of the problem.  That isn’t raw sewage, but it comes close.  It flows until it evaporates or soaks into the ground & into corroded pipes.  

A Friendly Foot Patrol

We wanted to see a place where the pipes were actually being installed.  The narrow streets of the old town did not permit us to travel by MRAP, so we got out and walked.   I always enjoy the foot patrols in any case and request that we do them whenever possible. I try to keep some Iraqi Dinars in my pockets and buy something at a local market.    It also gives us a chance to see and be seen, as well as check the pulse of the neighborhood.  I understand that this is not a scientific survey, but I also would say that I don’t trust the scientific surveys very much in Iraq. 

Polling in Iraq is problematic and unusually susceptible to bias.  Furthermore, I think some of those sponsoring some of the polls positively demand it.

The people of the town know who their benefactor is the U.S. and the atmospherics were great.   Everyone was willing to talk to us; all were smiling and friendly.   When our interpreter apologized to a driver delayed by our foot patrol, he commented that is was no trouble and thanked us for what we were doing.  

I believe he was speaking in general terms and not specifically about the water project, but the presence of hundreds of workers doing something obviously of assistance can’t hurt.   The only caveat I can think of is that residents seem to have come to think of the U.S., rather than their provincial and national leadership in this role.   

Markets were in open and the vendors claimed business was good and said that the produce, with the exception of bananas, was local.   As the picture nearby shows, the butcher shop also has fresh local produce.

Eternal Vigilance

I am acutely aware that we can play our role only because the Marines with us play their so well.   They are the ones who established this order that allows the flowering of peaceful commerce.  I think of it in terms of Maslow’s Hierarchy:  security comes before development. 

The Marines remain vigilant so our team can be secure in our work.  I think I would feel safe walking around hell if the Marines were taking care of me.

Dates

Earlier this season we noticed that few of the date palms around Al Asad had many dates and we feared that this could be a general condition.  Fortunately, our local problems stemmed from lack of care.  Nobody was cultivating the trees around base.  Date palms can pollinate naturally, but they do so inefficiently if not cultivated and planted in the proper way. There is not shortage of dates anywhere where anyone cares enough to care enough. 

Not Much Use if You Cannot Use it

This a new sewage truck the city of Kubaysah recently received as a gift from Columbia.  Everybody agrees that it will greatly enhance the city’s ability to treat its sewage – whenever anybody learns how to use it.   Our ePRT is looking into getting training for the city workers.

The Toughest Tribe in Anbar

One of the key components of sustainable power and influence is consistency.   If people understand that you will keep your word and behave in a consistent manner, they will respect you, whether or not they like you or what you are doing.  It is good to be loved; it is better to be respected. 

Western Anbar is a place of tribes and extended families.  Each group and sub-group has a reputation as do each of the sheiks.  These groups are constantly vying for advantage and position.  The Anbaris have come to see the Marines in terms they understand – as a tribe with a history and a reputation, although outside the tribal system.   They have come to see the Marines as the toughest tribe in Anbar, the tribe with the longest memory and the one that will pay back in the terms used by the ancient Roman  Lucius Cornelius  Sulla (Felix) “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full.”(BTW – a good biography of Sulla is Sulla the Fortunate.  It was published in 1927, but I don’t know of a newer one.   You could also go back to Plutarch, which is available in full text translation on Google.  Sorry, I can never resist the digression.)  This is good.  The Marines have won respect in Anbar in their own terms.    

The Marines provide consistent security which allowed the flowering of Anbar we are now seeing.  It is more than security from insurgents & AQI.  The Marines also provide a kind of impartial and honest outside force that helps guarantee the regional tribes and grouping against each other in their sometimes violent competion.  It is a smaller scale version of how the U.S. & NATO allowed the French and Germans to give up their ancient suspicions and hatreds since the security of an outside force eliminated incentives to stealthily surpass and surprise your opponent with a sudden, devastating, power.   The potential down side of what amounts to a hegemonic relationship is that it can break down if the outside force weakens or disappears before the embers of the ancient hatred and suspicion are gone.   With any luck, the people get to like working together better than destructive confrontation.   It worked maybe too well with the French & Germans.

This interrelationship would be an interesting subject for an anthropologist to study.   People always understand new development in their own terms and try to make sense of them in relation to existing structures.   It is not surprising that the Anbaris would see the Marines as the toughest tribe in Anbar.