Month: March 2009

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Tree Farm Visit

I went down to the farms today.  I had nothing special to do, but diligence and vigilance demands attention.    The new growth on the loblolly will start in a few weeks and the old needles are a drab in anticipation of the energy that will go into the new.   None of the hardwood trees is budding out.  Although Brunswick is more than 150 miles south of Washington, spring comes just a little bit later.    I don’t know why.   Maybe it is because Washington is a heat island, as most urban areas are with all their heat absorbing surfaces and heat producing human activities.  One problem in measuring changes in overall temperature is that as the measuring stations are surrounded by urban areas, the readings are biased by the buildings nearby.

Above is one of the streams near the road.  The banks are just starting to green up.   In back is a wetland about two acres.  The stream shifts.  I have seen the main bed in three different places.  It ranges over around 100 yards and I am never sure where I will find the main stream.  Below is Genito Creek that runs through part of our land.  Look carefully.  The creek is very wide at this point and the bottom is reddish clay, so it doesn’t stand out clearly in the photo at this time of year. The creek changes course and sand bars build and disappear.   The forest near the creek is mature, but the shifts tend to knock down the big trees.

Above shows the stream management zone between two areas of pine.  The SMZ protect the streams and provide corridors for wildlife. Some of the trees in the SMZ are very big.  According to the records, the zones were established in 1958.   don’t know how old the trees were when the zones were established.  When the leaves are on the trees, you cannot see how they interact with the pines.  Below – I have been exploring the new property in Freeman, VA. The forest is a little older and the ground is flatter, so it is easier to get around.  I was surprised to find these big rocks in the SMZ.  You find these kinds of outcroppings in mountains.  This area is mostly flat. For my friends and relatives in cold climates, let me point out that the green leaves you see are holly.  It stays green all year long around here and thrives in the understory, so the woods are never completely bare.

A lot of water is flowing and the roads are muddy.   I am glad to get my truck muddy again.   It is not a real truck unless it has the red clay spray marks up the wheel wells.

Although this is the least attractive part of the year – the wear of winter just before the burst of spring – it is also the easiest time to move around.   Last year’s brambles are as weak as they will get and I can push through them.   The ticks are active if it gets at all warm, but chiggers are not out yet; snakes are not active, no mosquitoes or flies.    This year it is easier than before.   The thinning and fertilizing operations of last fall made some paths.   Beyond that, the trees are just getting bigger and starting to shade out some of the brush. 

I walked around the SW boundary, down to the creek.  My neighbor cut timber year before last.  The boundary trees stand like a row of sentinels.  He had a lot of hardwood brush.   I don’t think he is going to replant.   The guy who sold me my property called to tell me that this place is on the market.   Not many people replant before they sell.   Replant might be the wrong word, in any case.  It was natural re-growth before.   If he just leaves it alone, it will come in with tulip trees, some oaks.  This is what he had before and it will come up from the roots.   The pines cannot compete with this.    The problem is that a lot of the re-growth will be inferior.   They tended to selectively cut in the old days, which meant that they took the best and left the worst.   This pattern will persist into the next generation if they come back from the roots.  

Above is part of Genito Creek.  You can see the sand bars. They form and disappear.  You can also see how the water undercuts the trees on the banks and eventually causes them to fall in.  I also found some signs of beavers.  They probably cannot do much harm here, and may be beneficial if they make a little pond at this point.  Judging from the composition of the forests along the flats, I don’t think this would be the first time beavers have damed up this creek.

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The Mall

Not many people know the National Mall area better than I do.  During the winter, I get off the Metro at Smithsonian and walk across the Mall every workday.   When I commute by bike in the summer, I ride along the Mall.   When I run during lunch breaks, I run on the Mall and if I when I have time I walk from SA 44 along across the Mall to Main State.  

Today I got off at Federal Triangle.  It was a longer walk to work, but it is a nice walk.  I like the mornings because I have the place mostly to myself.  I also like the afternoons when it is crowded with people.  It is nice most of the time.

I have posted dozens of Mall pictures on this blog, so please look through the files if you want to see more.  Below are the branches of an elm tree.  Notice the buds are swelling.  Spring is on the way.  

There are always complaints that the Mall is getting a little scruffy.    This is nothing new and it is part of the charm.   Our National Mall is … OUR national Mall.  On warm afternoons it fills with citizens enjoying their capital’s front yard.   People play football or Frisbee on the grass.  They walk between the Smithsonian buildings.  There are various exhibitions set up along the Mall paths during the warm seasons.  Thousands of us crowd the Mall on the 4th of July.  Millions of Americans watched the President’s inauguration.  People think of it as their own and it is.  Of course, all this is hard on the grass and it makes the place a little scruffy.

Below – I am reading lots of complaints that the crowds at the Obama inauguration killed the grass on the Mall.  It is damaged, but not dead.  I have seen it worse.   It will be back, as usual.

Scruffy is a point of pride for me and beauty.  Each of the bare spots is an indication of use.   The Smithsonian staff does a great job of keeping the grass reasonably healthy.   They rotate the fields to give grass a chance to recover.   And the fields are diverse; they have their share of clover and other “weeds”.   The Mall is not home to that chemically produced living Astroturf we too often see in our verdant manicured suburban lawns.

Above – this is how the rotate and manage the grass.  There is always a section closed off.  The grass there gets a rest.   Then they move the fence to protect a different place.  The grass on the Mall gets trampled every year, more during years with big events or inaugurations.   It grows back.   

This link has information about proposed restoration and improvements on the Mall.  It also shows the proposed location for the Martin Luther King Monument and other changes.

BTW – the bees are back.   A couple of years ago we were worried that honeybees were disappearing for mysterious reasons.  The reasons are not really mysterious.  Read about it at this link. The bees are back in town    

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Gender Wage Gap

The Economist magazine features an article about how much less women make.  In the EU, men make still 17.4% more than women and this is after 50 years of strenuous social-democratic effort to equalize outcomes. There is always a lot of gnashing of teeth on this subject.  The gap persists all around the world – America’s gap is above the EU average and about the same as Germany or UK – and everybody infers discrimination.   I don’t know if that explains the difference.   

Firms will move their operations to other cities, across state lines and even to foreign countries to save some money on labor costs.  The cost of labor is usually the highest cost of doing business.  Imagine if you can get the same amount of work for 10, 20 or even 30% less. 

We have to assume that firms that have more women must be more profitable if women are indeed paid less for the same work.

In Estonia, they pay women more than 30% less.  If firms in Estonia can get the same work done for 30% less, I wonder why they don’t hire only women and I wonder why companies from all over Europe don’t move to Estonia and hire these wonderfully economical Estonian women so that they too can profit from the low labor costs. 

Could it really be that business owners all over the world are just too dumb to take advantage of this wage differential?  Or maybe they are just not interested in making money or they are not greedy enough to pick up a 17.4% profit opportunity that is dropped in front of them.  

Maybe the astonishing statistics are misleading. 

Choice makes a difference.  I read that men suffer 92% of the workplace fatalities.  That is a frightening statistic, but it has little to do with discrimination and a lot to do with choice of jobs & lifestyles.  Choice explains more things than we like to admit.  (The most dangerous occupation, BTW, is good old forestry.  Look on page 15 of that report linked just above.)  Doing different things produces different outcomes.  This simple self-evident truth seems to offend some people these days.  Maybe it is too simple.  They prefer complexity.  It provides more places to hide, more excuses for screwing up, more opportunities to blame others.

Iraq, forestry and I ride my bike to work in Washington traffic.  Maybe I should rethink my choices … naaah. Besides, office work is the safest of all occupations and that is what I do most.  It evens out in the long run and in the long run we are all dead anyway. 

Above is a tree cutting machine at work in the woods near Portland Oregon.  I saw it when I was there for the foresty convention in October 2008.  The machines make it safer for the workers.  Few things are more dangerous than cutting in thick timber with a chain saw.  The branches of the trees are laced together a long way up.  The big danger comes from snagged branches falling down and landing on the poor guys down below.  Even small branches fall hard when they fall 100 feet. They call them “widow makers.”

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A Walk up the Hill

I went up to Heritage for a lunchtime lecture.  It was funny and amusing.  You can watch it at this link.  

On a tangential subject, this video is also funny.

It was cold today, around 20 degrees and wind out of the north, so the walk up Capitol Hill was a little uncomfortable.   It was not so bad on the way back and it looked nice in the bright sunlight with the blanket of snow.   I have included some pictures.

It is supposed to be warmer by the end of the week.   It is hard to believe, but spring will be here really soon.

Above is the Robert A Taft Memorial and Carillon.

Above is Teamsters’ Union Headquarters.

Above is a beautiful zelkova.   Notice the graceful curves.    I have been passing this tree for around ten years.  It is growing fast and its curves are getting thicker.

It remind me of why Americans are fatter today.   It is not the only reason, but it is a reason. 

Years ago, Pepsi couldn’t compete with Coke because Coke had a very attractive vase shaped bottle.  The bottle is important because it is part of the total package.  Most people really cannot tell the difference by taste alone.  Pepsi tried lots of bottles; nothing worked.  But Pepsi executives knew that the actual soda cost almost nothing. The big expenses were in marketing, bottling and distribution.   They also knew that people would finish off a bottle, even if it had more in it.  They call it unit gluttony.  So they could afford to make bottles bigger, give away “free” soda and still sell as many bottles.  Coke had to match the offer, but as you make the curvy bottles bigger, they become less attractive.   This is a curse of all curvy things. 

Pretty soon lots of things came in bigger packages and super sizes.   People finished them off and demanded more. Today everything is bigger and lots of things are thicker around the middle, just like my tree.

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Tobacco

I am not a tobacco person.  My father could knock down three packs of unfiltered Pall Mall a day.  I always disliked the smell but I didn’t know how bad it was until I went away to college.  When I came home a few weeks later for my first visit, I couldn’t believe the smell.  All those years I smelled like stale smoke and never knew.  You get used to almost anything.  I suppose most of the other kids in school smelled the same.  Almost everybody smoked in those days.   I was never tempted to try cigarettes.  My generation came of age just as the dangers of smoking became clear.  Besides, I was on the swim team.  You cannot be a good swimmer if you smoke.

I am glad that smoking is no longer allowed in the office or on buses or airplanes. I remember how bad it used to be on long flights.   But I do feel sorry for those suckers who have to stand outside in the cold to get in their smoke.  We may have gone too far in the other direction.   Smokers are one of the only groups left that can be disparaged with impunity in this PC world.  Many of the farmers near my forests in Brunswick County still grow tobacco and it grows wild on my land. Tobacco was America’s first cash crop.  The colonies around Chesapeake Bay probably would have failed if not for the noxious weed. Tobacco is hard on the soil, so its cultivation tended to push the colonists into exploring new land looking for new places to plant. Tobacco built Virginia, so its not all bad, but many of the soils still have not recovered.

I understand how much the troops in Iraq loved their cigars.   I wrote a posting about the Marines’ love affair with the cigar.  Somebody read that post just yesterday and told me about the way his company provided cigars to the troops.   This is the link.

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Evolution not Intelligent Design

I give up.   For many years I have been looking for a grand unified theory of persuasion or at least of public affairs.  I have read hundreds of books about the subject and thousands of articles.   I have listened carefully to skilled practitioners and tried a lot of things out for myself.  I have achieved success, suffered failure and tried to apply the lessons of each.  I have looked for the pattern; inferred the pattern and imposed a pattern where none really existed.  But the long search has reached a dead end … and an insight. (The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.)

Below is the Library of Congress.  There are several other buildings which together contain the accumulated knowledge of humanity.  All you have to do is look for it.

I could not find a grand unified theory of persuasion and public affairs because none exists.   I have to be content with tactical success and experimentation.   The best strategy is to follow up and double down where things work and abandon failure as quickly and cleanly as possible. 

An organization that can do this is not omniscient; it is robust and opportunistic.  In an uncertain world, we are always playing the probabilities.  It is a world where the best plan might fail and the worst succeed, but in the course of repeated tries and many actions, the better ones make progress. It is an evolutionary system that unfolds through iterations; the truth is revealed conditionally and gradually.  It cannot be choreographed in advance.

I remain a believer in truth and in seeking truth.  It is just that I do not believe that we humans have the capacity to find the big truths.  Actually, I am not giving up the search, but I am switching methods. Repeated inquiry and intelligent analysis of both process and results will bring us to an approximation of practical truth, wrong in many details but useful for decision making in the situations for which it was developed.   

You don’t need to know the whole truth to know what to do.  We have to walk the line between recklessness and paralysis.  At some point we know enough to jump.  That point comes when we estimate the probabilities are good enough – not perfect, but good enough – when the probable outcome of doing something is better than waiting.   We will be wrong a lot.  We need to be robust because omniscience, or even understanding most things, is not an option available to mortal man.  We are always wrong to some extent.

“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”

That is how they described MBAs when I was at the University of Minnesota B-school. It was meant pejoratively, but it is not a bad strategy.   If you more likely to be right than wrong and the rewards of success are significant while the cost of failure is not catastrophic, the smart decision is just do it. If it works, do it again and improve it.  If it doesn’t work, figure out why and do something better. 

Just because you don’t have a detailed plan doesn’t mean you don’t have a plan. Often the best plan is the structure of the choice architecture in the organization itself. Giving people a broad goal in an organization structured to take advantage of opportunity and can learn from experience is the best plan you can have in a changing world.  After it works, you can take credit for prescience if taking credit is important to you. 

Ask the guy in the kayak about his precise plan before he hits the white water around the bend.   It is better to know you can adapt to what will come than to develop a bogus detailed strategy for everything that could be on the way.  

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Loving the Suburbs (& the City & the Country)

So why not have it all together. 

The ostensible arbiters of taste hate the suburbs.  They critically acclaim crappy movies like “American Beauty” or “Revolutionary Row” that fit into cognoscenti stereotypes of life in the suburbs.   Maybe these wise guys won’t understand, but suburbanites are the happier with their lives than those people who live in small towns or big cities, according to Pew Research.

I feel uniquely qualified to speak to this issue, since I work in the city, live in the suburbs and spend a lot of time on my farms in rural areas.   Each has its attraction and I would not want to have to choose among them and I don’t have to, so in many ways it is a false choice.  Let me address it anyway.

The key advantage of the city is that you can walk to the places you need to go, although this advantage is lost on many urban dwellers, since they don’t walk much anyway.  Suburbs are a little too much car culture for me.  Of course, I am a bit spoiled in Washington, which is one of the world’s most pleasant and walkable cities. Washington really isn’t a city.  At least around the Capitol, it is more like a nice park with magnificent monuments and musuems.  Who wouldn’t like that?   In many cities these days you cannot really walk around much. 

Diversity used to be an advantage of cities, but not anymore.  Today that is an advantage of the near-in in suburbs.  Fairfax County, where I live, is more diverse than Washington DC.   My homeowners’ association has people from all over the world interacting and getting along, which is true diversity.  People in cities tend to have more defined and sometimes antagonistic group identities.   Group identify is not diversity; it is just a kind of standoff.  The suburbs are now doing a better job of breaking down archaic group-think.  I suppose that sort of homogenization is one of the things that offends some people, but I prefer to interact with people, not “representatives.”   Rural areas tend to be less diverse, in my experience, because fewer people are moving in.

The advantage of the rural areas is space and I love to hike in the big natural areas and I really love MY forests, but absent those things, rural life holds few attractions for me.  The countryside is a place to get away to … and then get away from.  It is not a place I would like to live permanently.  We lived in Londonderry in New Hampshire, which was an interesting exurb.  It has the demographic characteristics of a suburb, but the density of a rural area along with a little bit of a small town. We lived in a kind of cluster development, which I found very pleasant. 

Above was our home area in Londonderry, NH.  It was both suburb and country.  The picture below is about 200 yards away.

I like to see my neighbors, but be able to leave them behind when I want to be alone.  This may be the blueprint for the community of the future.  You can have fairly dense development amid green fields connected to urban amenities.   The old suburbs, where everybody has a rambler or ranch style house set on a half acre lot are soooo 1950s.   The gritty urban environment is too unpleasant and the countryside is too vast.  Put the three together, and you have something nice.  I guess that is why I am happy where I am now in Fairfax.   Of course, I will be keeping my eyes open for something better.   That is the American way.

Above – people like old fashioned small towns … in theory, but they demand the larger floorplans and conveniences available only in modern suburbs.  Below is a little too empty.  Some people think they want to “get away” but few really do.  They are nice places to visit, but you wouldn’t want to live there.

Speaking of that, Pew has an article about the middle class (available here) and I read the Economist special report on the growing global middle class (here).   The middle class is also much maligned by the cool ones.  The cone headed intellectuals used to call us bourgeois.   But when you think about it, most of the good values come from the middle class.   The poor are too screwed and screwed up to think about the better things in life and the rich are too spoiled and effete to care.   Read the articles, and I bet you will agree. 

Above – Old buildings are very popular with a small, but vocal, part of the population.  They have lots of nice nooks and great lines, but the plumbing tends to be bad.  Open markets (below) are another “must have” ammenity.  Unfortunately, they are often not economically viable, as the people who claim to love them shop elsewhere.

All things considered, we have lots of options and this middle class guy is feeling okay in the new and improved suburbs. 

The nicest places, IMO, are the garden cities that were popular in the early 20th Century.  This is a bit older, but has the open feel and modest opulence.  Below – good mass transit is a necessity to a nice city or suburb.  They have to be more convenient than driving for many people.  You can do this only by making it more difficult and expensive to drive.  If you provide enough parking and prevent traffic jams, most people who can will choose to drive and doom mass transit to a poor transport method for the poor.  It is a tragedy of the commons.  Everyone benefits if more people take mass transit, but each individual can make himself relatively better off if he can get himself into the car.  

Below is that bad part of the suburbs – parking lots. Cars are overused.  We have too many impervious surfaces, too many roads, too much traffic and too many fat people because of our love affair with the automobile.

A lot depends on not on the location or the life station but on the person.   No matter what how much you make or where you go, you have to live with yourself.  If you don’t like the company, you are out of luck.

Below is a sculture at the Hirschorn.  I don’t know what it is supposed to be.  Maybe nothing – i.e. non-representative.  It looks to me like a little fat devil.  Or it could be a cow up on its hind legs.  One advantage to cities is you get to look at these things and be amazed.

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Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Forests

I wrote this article about investing in forest lands for the next issue of “Virginia Forests.”   It is based on a posting I made a couple months ago, so it should look familiar.   Below are five-year-old pines.

We own lots of things during our lifetimes but we form special bonds with land; it is our connection to the earth and our legacy for future.   There is no surprise that people have deep feelings for land that has been in their families for generations, but it is astonishing how fast the same sorts of connections form with adopted land.

I have loved forests and wanted to have my own part as long as I can remember, but owning a forest is not something you can easily do.  Many forest owners inherit their land.  Others have long connections with the forestry community.  I was completely new.  I would have to think about it long and hard.  I thought about it for more than twenty years.  I couldn’t afford to buy a forest as a luxury.   My forest had to be an investment that would at least break even, so I started to study the economics of forestry.   I was surprised and encouraged to learn that forestry is an excellent, if illiquid, investment.    According to “Forbes” magazine, timber investments from 1990 – 2007 timber produced a compounded annual return of 12.88%.  You can’t beat that if, and only if, you have the time and ability to wait for nature to take its course.   There are several ways to invest in forestry. 

Below are twelve-year-old pines.  They are growing very well, but are a little thick.  We will probably thin early – in two or three years.

Twelve-year-old loblolly pines on Johnson-Matel tree farm in Freeman in Brunswick Co VA in July 2008

Many people who invest in forestry do so through Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs).   That option didn’t appeal to me.   That makes forestry just another investment.   My logic was the reverse.   I wanted to own a forest and I needed to justify it as an investment, not the other way around.   I wanted my forest that I could stand on and manage.    After investigating the economics, I decided that I felt secure enough in my judgment on this matter to base my retirement savings on growing trees rather on a capricious stock market. 

Of course finding the right forest is harder than buying stocks or bonds.   I needed to find a place close enough that I could visit but far enough from my home in Northern Virginia that I could afford the land.   My research took me to Southside Virginia on the Piedmont south of Richmond.  I quickly learned that successful forestry on my tract of land requires successful forestry on the land in the neighborhood.  Timber is heavy and hard to transport.   Unless you have enough nearby forested acres, skilled forestry contractors and mills to process the timber and sustain a forestry industry, you cannot grow trees profitably.   The forests of Southside Virginia meet these requirements.  

The real estate broker didn’t think I was serious when I called and he probably didn’t change his mind when I showed up at his office in Lawrenceville.  He tried to steer me to small tracts of land suitable for a getaway cabin.   I told him that I wanted a place for forestry – real forestry.   “You would never be able to build your cabin,” he warned. This is just land good for growing trees.  He smiled when I told him that is exactly what I wanted. 

We looked at several tracts of well developed timberland and then told me about a recent clear cut, which was less expensive.   The trees were two years old, but there was good site preparation and I could see the tops of the little pines poking above the weeds, slash & brush. I loved the potential. I also liked the streams and the mature hardwoods left near them.  

Above is the land as we bought it in 2005.  Below is three years later in 2008.  Trees grow.  The ones in the lower picture are thinned to make them more resistant to pests and improve wildlife habitat.  Notice the different density compared with the twelve-year-old trees in the picture with the truck.  Those are planted a little too thick, IMO, which is why we will thin early.  There is disagreement re how thick pines should be planted.  The latest practice is to plant thinner for the wildlife and pest benefits I mentioned, as well as the idea that a thinner forest will produce more chip-and-saw and saw timber … eventually.

The smartest thing a new landowner can do it to get to know the neighbors and make some local friends.  They are the ones who protect your land … or not.   Fortunately, the land I bought already had a hunt club associated with it and they were happy just to keep on doing what they had been doing.   The hunt club maintains the gates and the “no trespassing” signs.   In this rural area, everybody knows everybody else, so it is helpful if they know me too.   Local friends are also very helpful in suggesting contractors. 

Below you can see some of the diversity of the tree farm. In the front is a food plot (a little beaten down because they used it as a staging area for the thinning and biosolid applications.  It will better next year.)  The pine plantation is in the middle and you can see the mature hardwoods (oak, beech, tulip poplar & sweet gum) in the background.  This provides a balanced habitat for wildlife.  I think it just looks nicer too.

There are lots of things a forest owner needs to know and do.  Fortunately, there are lots of people and organizations eager to help.  One of the first things a new owner should do is become a certified tree farmer.  Sustainable forestry is becoming increasingly important and the American Tree Farm System helps landowners understand and use the best practices on their own tree farms.   The ATFS requires a forestry plan, which informs choices and is a key to making better decisions.   It pays off.  Another of the first stops is the local forester.  The Virginia Department of Forestry can hook the new owner into networks of helpers and information and help fund programs benefit forests all over the state.   The Virginia Forest Landowner Update is the place you can find out about events and programs for forest owners.   Many of the events are free or inexpensive.  I attended many field days and I learned about things like soils, pests, invasive species, better trees, taxation questions and a lot more from events available through the update.   Finally, getting a good forestry consultant is a must.  I hope someday to know how to do many of the forestry activities on my own (or make my kids do them), but I will never have the expert knowledge of a trained forester who works full-time on these issues. 

I joined the Virginia Forestry Association and got the communication director job for the Virginia tree farm project of the ATFS.   It is a great privilege and learning opportunity.  My job mostly consists of writing articles for the Virginia Forests magazine four times a year and I get to write the story of the tree farmer of the year.  The more successful tree farms you see, the more you understanding your own.  I have never met or even heard about a tree farmer who didn’t love his forest, and everybody you meet is eager to talk about what they did on their own land and help others do good things too.

I have been happy with my forestry investment and the forestry community it opened for me.  You cannot rush the trees, so I sometimes wish I had got into the business sooner and been further along. But I then I remember that I couldn’t.  Besides the obvious lack of money (or more correctly mortgage credit), I didn’t have enough understanding of the forestry business.   Liking trees is not enough.  You need to know a lot more than I do, but I get along with a little help from my friends.    

Forestry on Televison

Forestry seems to be enjoying some popularity.  There are two competing logger shows on cable TV.   The first was Ax Men on History Channel and now we have Extreme Loggers on Discovery and American Loggers.  Of course, these programs show the most exciting, challenging and dangeous part of forestry.   For me the growing and environmental aspects are most interesting, but those processes unfold slowly and prosaically.  It doesn’t make good TV.   They also show the forestry in big, natural forests.  Tree farms are more civilized and easy to work.  Nevertheless, logging can be  indeed a tough job.   Here are some pictures of logging machines.

Very good is the Ax Men 3D Logging Tour.