The opposite is also true. Below is the Griffon roller-coaster at Busch Gardens. It reminds me of our perceptions of Iraq over the last years.
Iraq is getting play in the news again, but the narrative is wrong. Some commentators – covering for their earlier dumb statements – disingenuously say that we don’t know what would have happened if we had followed the defeatist advice in 2006 and pulled out instead of surged. Anybody who has been to Iraq knows that we would be in a big mess today. The proper answer for the erstwhile surge opponents is to say that they were seriously wrong last year, but that they see the error in light of events and will work with conditions to take advantage of the success brought about by policies they opposed. I certrainly would not hold their earlier mistakes against them, but I don’t think I will hold my breath waiting for the truth.
The media correctly points out that w/o the Sunni Awakening and the decline of the Shiite militias we would not enjoy the success we do today. Lots of thing contributed to success. W/o the surge, however, Al Qaeda would have cut the head off Sunni leaders, as they did in 2005, and the Shiite militias would never have gone into decline. When you win, you get some of the things you want. That is what winning means.
Some people just cannot understand joint causality and that some conditions are indeed necessary but not by themselves sufficient. I have lived in Anbar for awhile now and met people involved in the Awakening. They hate Al Qaeda with considerable passion and we certainly could not have defeated the bad guys w/o their help. But w/o our help, THEY could not have defeated the bad guys either. Our friends would have been isolated and killed individually or in small groups, along with their families, and others would have been intimidated into silence. I don’t have to speculate about this. We saw that such things happened in 2005 and we still could see them happening on a smaller scale even in the time I have been in Iraq.
Let me be as blunt as I can. The surge worked. Those who opposed the surge were wrong. I feel justified in being so nasty because of all the defeatism and negativity we had just a year ago – about the time I was deciding to go to Iraq myself. I will not accept that those who told people like me that we were stupid for thinking we could win in Iraq – and chumps for volunteering – can now pretend that the success in Iraq would have happened anyway.
I believe in looking to the future and I don’t dwell on this to justify the past. Historians can sort out the details in the fullness of time. But we are still in the midst of this project and we have to keep our eyes on the ball. AQI and the bad guys are on the run, but they are not defeated. They are like an infection that has been weakened by penicillin. We are feeling good now and it is tempting to declare that all is well, but if we stop before the job is done, the disease will return, stronger and more deadly.
The success of the surge is giving us the options of bringing home troops – in victory – and of getting the Iraqis to share more of the burden. But it is important to remember HOW we got to this point and don’t pretend that it was just luck.
Re Afghanistan –Foreign fighters that until recently headed to Iraq now are on their way to Afghanistan. Why? Because they know they are defeated in Iraq. If WE had been defeated in Iraq in 2006, they would still be going to Afghanistan, but with greater confidence & resolve and in greater numbers. Iraq and Afghanistan are not the same war, but they are linked. Al Qaeda & other terror organizations send fighters and bombers to both places. Foreign terrorists fight us where they think they can hurt us. That WAS Iraq when we were weaker there. It may be Afghanistan now because our success in Iraq has made it too hard for the bad guys there. It could also, BTW, be New York or Washington. We control them by opposing them. That is just true. If we keep the imitative, we have more choices about WHERE we fight them, but we do not have a choice about IF we will fight them.
People who support extremists respond to the same sorts of pressures and incentives as other people. When being a jihadist is easy and it looks like success is at hand, lots of people want to volunteer or at least be on the winning side. As it gets harder or more dangerous, this support dries up. Fighting terrorists does not create more IF it is done properly. Please see my note from yesterday.
Extremist ideologies decline only AFTER they have been defeated or discredited. Nazism didn’t decline by itself. It went into terminal decline after it was defeated by force of arms. Until then it looked like the wave of the future. In 1941 things looked different than they did in 1945. A similar dustbin of history fate befell Soviet Marxism. Although in their case it was primarily an economic and political defeat, these forces were backed by forty years of resolve and strength on the part of the U.S. and our allies, without which Soviet communism would have blotted out the sun of freedom over a much wider area for a much longer time. Why does anybody think extremist jihadists would go away without a fight? They are standing on the edge of the precipice. Let’s make sure they fall off.
BTW – when we do succeed in this endeavor, let’s not think it is the end of history. We went down that path in the 1990s and it didn’t work out.
I recommend a superb interview about Iraq with John Nagl, who helped write the COIN manual. It is on Fresh Air on NPR. This program sits on the soft left side of the radio spectrum, which is why this interview is so interesting. The host obviously is a light-weight compared with Nagl. You can hear in her voice and demeanor that she knows that too and is impressed with his knowledge. She really seems to have learned something. Her questions are sometimes leading and simplistic but his answers make it all work.
Getting accurate news out on a venue such as Fresh Air is useful. I suspect that many of the listeners are as badly in need of the education as the show’s host. The popular stereotype of the Iraq conflict and the people fighting it are out of whack with reality, but too often on shows like this you hear “experts” repeating them in a self-sustaining circle. A dose of reality will be a breath of fresh air.
Below is the Marine Band playing at the Marine Memorial in Arlington. They play every Tuesday evening during the summer. I went to see them last week. The picture is not related to the rest of the post, but I thought it was a good picture.
I minored in anthropology as an undergraduate. I don’t think about that much anymore, but an article from AEI reminded me of the usefulness of this sort of outlook. Anthropologists study cultures and the interrelations within and among them. This is useful in Iraq and Afghanistan as we try to apply leverage to help those places overcome the damage of insurgencies and terrorism. I have spoken to anthropologist studying the cultural landscape of Anbar and we are always looking for better ways to understand the people we work with. We call it “human terrain” and knowing the human terrain is as important as understanding the physical terrain of a battle space. It saves lives and makes us more successful. It just makes sense.
The article I linked above is about an anthropologist who was recently killed while on duty in Afghanistan. This guy was a hero. What surprised me was that some professional anthropologists disagree. Some even say it is some kind of ethical violation for anthropologists to use their skills to help with human terrain projects. I think maybe they have been watching too much Star Trek and they think the prime directive is applicable on our planet. It is one of those examples that shows that you can get a PhD and still remain a fool.
We apply our education – history, anthropology, business etc – to do our jobs better. It would be unethical not to do so, IMO. That is one of the purposes of education. I cannot believe that there is a controversy about this among some academics. Are they trying to prove that what they teach in the ivory tower really is useless?
The article I mentioned refers to William Francis Butler who said that a nation that insists on separating its soldiers and its scholars will likely find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards. In our modern America it looks like we have given fools some of the thinking jobs too.
Social “sciences” such as sociology, anthropology and psychology are not sciences in the precise sense of the term. That does not mean they are not worth study. On the contrary, the disciplines used in these fields can help channel thought and help in the art of living life. But social scientists have no right to stand apart from their societies in a way we might tolerate in a practitioner of a hard science. Society IS their business.
I studied history & management in school, but I didn’t leave it in the classroom. Whenever possible, I like to test assumptions and theories in light of actual events in the real world. Thinking improves action and action improves thinking and the test of a theory is its ability to predict outcomes in the real world. No theory accurately applies to all aspects the real world, but some are better, more predictive, than others and all can be improved in light of experience. I think that – the real world experience – is what scares some academics. They want to protect their theories and their phony-baloney status from the intrusion of reality. That is why they criticize colleagues who participate in reality, no matter what rationalizations they offer.
The best professors I recall from my studies were those who had worked in business and/or consulted extensively. They were a lot more reasonable than those who rarely or never ventured out. But the pure academic types often looked down on experience – silly, but true. It evidently still applies. Let’s hope the “purists” are not too strong.
Barack Obama is going to visit Iraq. This is a good thing. He is an honest man. After he sees for himself the progress we have made, he will have to come around to a more sensible policy on the subject. Let the dogs of the left howl.
We have to look to the future. I get annoyed at all the pea-brained fools who want to relive the events of 2003. Yes, if we had it to do all over again we would make a different set of mistakes. I think it was a good thing to get rid of Saddam Hussein, but no matter what our opinions of the past, we live in the here and now. We can make decisions only in the present that affect the future.
In the here and now we have an astonishing opportunity. The next president, Obama or McCain, will have options. This is what the success of the surge has achieved. American resolve and courage has given the next president a victory. The sooner we all recognize that, the better we can build on that success. We can now withdraw some troops; we can now get the Iraqis to pay for more of their own reconstruction; we can further humiliate Al Qaeda. These are the things victory gives us.
We achieved this victory because of our perseverance and hard work. Already I notice that the media is implying that the turn-around (when they even notice it) results from luck or something we could have had w/o all the hardships if only we had been nicer to some of our adversaries.
Before a big & difficult change, people say it is impossible. After it has happened, they claim it was inevitable. This is a perniciously silly idea. Giving up in 2006 would have been a disaster. If we had relied on the kindness of the Iranians, Al Qaeda or the various regional bad guys we would be bloodied all over the place. These guys have no history of moderation or generosity. They stop only when they hit something stronger and more determined than they are. Americans are generous in victory. That is what secures peace. But you cannot be generous until you have something to be generous with. In other words, you can give peace a chance only AFTER earning it.
I will be watching the news very carefully. Lord knows, it will be easy to follow Obama’s progress since he has taken all the network news anchors with him. I eagerly await his turn around in Iraq policy. I look forward to seeing how it is done. I expect to learn a lot re spinning.
No matter what, however, it will be a welcome development. It is sort of like what Viktor Laszlo says to Rick Blaine in Casablanca. “Welcome back to the fight. This time I know our side will win.”
I found the team leader conference in Baghdad very interesting and am trying to take some inspiration from it for my remaining time in Iraq. I was especially attracted to what General Petraeus said about the big idea and how working toward them attracts talent as people want to accomplish these sorts of goals.
Below is a “gas station” in Hadithah. Not much to look at, but there was no fuel to buy not long ago.
It is easy to get discouraged around here if we look at the things that are still lacking. But when I think about how much has been accomplished, the mood changes. Places like Hadithah, which were wastelands of rubble less than a year ago, are now enjoying growing prosperity and stability, with full markets and lots of economic activity. Our “good news story” is part of that, but only ONE part. The Anbari people are resourceful and resilient. They are going to make it and we can take great satisfaction that we helped.
We are beginning to notice the effects of more Iraqi government money funding projects in the cities of Western Al Anbar. Projects are being built without our involvement. For example, the Al Faraby Primary School in Hadithah was an ITAO project. When USACE went to do site planning they found a GOI project already in full swing. Similarly I recently visited a youth Center in Rutbah. CA was planning to renovate it and the ePRT was supplying some soccer field improvements. I recently learned that our help was no longer needed as GOI was going to fund and work the project with a big budget.
Below is Hit near the City Hall
The effects are still uneven but unmistakable and they are bringing a subtle change in attitude. Local leaders are coming to understand that their own government, not coalition forces, is where they should look for resources. Effecting this change in attitude has been one of our key goals, but I am not sure how much credit we can take for it happening, sort of like the rooster taking credit for the sunrise. Certainly equally important are the fantastic oil revenues that the Iraqi government is earning as well as the perception among observant people that the U.S. Congress and the American people are less enthusiastic about continuing to push American money into a country that can well afford its own development.
Below is irrigation system near Rawah
I was a little concerned to hear that the elections may be postponed. We hear from contacts that the people of Western Al Anbar are anxious to have their voices heard. They learned their lesson from the foolishness of their earlier election boycott and now want more representative politicians in power throughout the area. I am afraid that frustration will build as elections are delayed and people suspect that incumbent politicians are abetting in the delay to protect their own careers and prolong their tenure in their jobs.
All tolled, I find many more reasons for hope than for despair. Iraq still has a very long and steep road to travel, but it is increasingly prepared to make the journey successfully.
Above is a Marine playing golf during free time. You take what you can.
My ePRT is on the edge of the world. I realized this as we flew low to Baghdad in the Blackwater helicopter on the way to Baghdad. Marine Air flies higher and straighter, so I don’t see as much, but there is not much to see anyway on my usual Western Anbar travels, just shades of dusty brown. As we flew toward Bagdad, I saw farm lands that were wider than a football field’s distance from the river. Some of the land looked very green and rich. How different would my impression of Iraq have been if I had been somewhere else but Western Anbar?
I went to Baghdad for the team leader conference. The thirty-one PRTs in Iraq represent vastly different human and natural terrains. Each of us sees part of the situation. It is good to try to bring us together to discuss the bigger picture.
Below is our partner helicopter.
Iraq has improved a lot since I arrive in September of last year. Our meeting reflected this changed situation. Back then it was sometimes hard to see a possible solution. Today I feel reasonably sure that we will succeed in helping this country become more democratic, stable and non-threatening.
It gets lots less green near Al Asad …
Our challenge now is how to help the Iraqis usefully spend their own resources on development projects. We were always supposed to be working ourselves out of a job. The preferred end state is a normal relationship between the U.S. and Iraq and we are well on the way.
… and a lot more green as you get farther from AA.
During the conference I got a couple different perspective about Iraq. For example, Iraq had an excellent system of public health until the 1970s. It declined in the 1980s and got worse and worse as trained professionals left the country and facilities were no maintained. The promising news in this is that we are helping restore, not create a system. This is true of many aspects of this place. As one of the presenters pointed out, Iraq is not a poor country; it is a broken country that can and is being mended. The other different perspective I got came from the simply flying over the country and talking to my colleagues. There is more to Iraq than Western Anbar and there is a lot of potential.
Above – animals grazing, palms growing along fields of grain. My impression of Iraq will always be Western Al Anbar, but I have to remember that is not the whole country.
Picture below is from the Cowboy Museum in Oklahoma City.
I stay out of specific politics on this blog, but now that both candidates have come down to nuanced but similar policies of staying in Iraq as long (or as short) as the need exists, I feel a little freer to ask what the hell is wrong with the American media?
During the bad days in Iraq, not long ago, they were writing the American obituary. They had no trouble finding and quoting experts telling why we couldn’t win in this sort of environment. Now they cannot seem even to notice success. Isn’t that an extraordinary story? In the heart of the Middle East, on a battlefield chosen by Al Qaeda as their key front for their war against civilization, in a place where they proclaimed the beginning of their new caliphate we have driven them to virtual extinction. As they cower in their spider holes, fearing the arrival of our Marines or our Iraqi allies, their frustration is palpable. This was supposed to be their victory, not ours. They thought they had the weight of events on their side; they were mistaken. Why is this not story worthy of investigation and exposition by our esteemed journalists?
My experience with journalists informs me that many, perhaps most, work from their existing models and do not actively seek out information that disconfirms them. They have a narrative that is generally accepted by other people in the media and that tends to constrain their perceptions. This is not something limited to journalists, but they are particularly susceptible precisely because they think they are not.
The narrative that their conventional wisdom accepted was that Iraq was mostly lost and that we were in a holding pattern heading for a long term failure and withdrawal. They fixed the various data points around their narrative and the stories more or less made sense back in 2006. This narrative is now unraveling but the MSM has yet to figure out a new one to replace it. It is not a conspiracy, but it is a syndrome, a kind of a group-think. It will take a lot of changed facts and a couple of courageous leading journalists to break out. We have the changed facts on the ground; what we need now is the courage.
BTW – I was reading one couragous journalist today. People who have been here recently know a lot more. Stay away from those pundits and bloggers who have been to Iraq years ago … or never.
Recent deadly bombings around Iraq, one involving State colleagues, reminded us that this is still a dangerous place, despite the astonishing progress Iraq has made over recent months. I was reminded on a local level during a foot patrol.
The crowd in general was okay, but one guy (he is not in my picture, BTW) was obviously none too happy. I won’t go into details. Suffice to say he was supposed to get compensation for a mistake but when he went to the local authorities to get it they ripped him off, he says. In these situations all you can do is smile and keep in talking/letting them talk, while trying to figure out how to get away. My colleague, Sam, is an excellent interpreter and was able to keep the guy from going too crazy. I am glad the guy had a chance to seek justice and it will probably be good public relations, especially if he is treated fairly. It does, however, point up the dangers inherent in our work and why we must not become complacent. I always worry about some weirdo in the crowd or a guy with a PBIED.
It is very important to go among the Iraqi people to show them we know they are not the enemy, that we are not afraid and that we want to hear what they have to say, sweet and bitter. I bet they will be talking about this particular engagement for a long time to come. The Iraqis present were also surprised and concerned over this man’s anger. I believe our interpreter Sam and I did our duty representing our country in a favorable light and the Marines calmly addressed the situation. Nevertheless, this was a wake-up call about how fast a situation can deteriorate. We have reviewed our security procedures and our team members and I will be much more circumspect in the future.
Nobody is afraid to complain to us. They are usually reasonably happy with Marines and somewhat unhappy with local authorities. While we take some pleasure in being popular, we have to avoid the impression that we are the problem solvers in contrast to local authorities. We will be gone soon. The local authorities will abide and the people have to learn to abide with them. In many ways, they are asking too much too soon from their governments, most of which are newly established after the defeat of the insurgency, but the people are generally on the right track and their requests are legitimate. People always ask about fuel and electricity. They want their streets to be clean and their homes to be secure. Most of all, they want no longer to live in fear. They are also concerned re water. It is a desert, after all.
You don’t learn from experience unless you pay close attention. Failure focuses the mind. We ask what went wrong and identify improvements. As often, however, we don’t fix the problem but try to fix the blame. This absolves everybody else and lets us all continue business as usual. We can find individuals who made poor decision, but the only way to systematically improve is to look at the whole system and analyze the interactions. If you have a dysfunctional system, changing the players doesn’t help.
There is a currently popular saying that “doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.” This is simplistic. It is possible to flip a coin ten times in a row and get all heads, but still expect the probability of the next toss to be even, at least after checking the coin. A good system with good people may produce poor results. That is why you study the processes. If you can identify the factors the led to the result and they are not likely to recur wholesale changes are unjustified.Success brings less soul searching than failure. We point to good results and are unenthusiastic about checking to see if they were deserved. But just as it is possible to fail for reasons beyond our control or factors unlikely to recur, we can succeed for the same bad reasons, so success should be as closely scrutinized as failure. There is no shortage of talk about failures in Iraq, although much of it is designed to fix the blame not the problem. As it becomes clearer that we are succeeding, we should learn from what went right and how it might be transferred elsewhere. I have a couple ideas from my own point of view. Keep in mind that I have personal knowledge only of events in Western Anbar and so I emphasize factors and people acting here. My list is not comprehensive.
Leadership
Had Abraham Lincoln had stuck with General George McClellan, or the American people elected “Little Mac president in 1864, we might well need a passport to cross the Potomac. Leadership changes the course of human events and a change in leadership was essential to the turn around in Iraq.
It does not follow, BTW, that previous leadership was incompetent (remember fix the problem, not the blame), just not appropriate. McClellan was a superb general. In a defensive posture, he was great. He just didn’t grasp what he had to do to win and didn’t have the temperament to do implement it. That task eventually fell to Ulysses S. Grant. Lincoln found his general in a man who had been unsuccessful in his earlier endeavors but had the appropriate skills, talents and temperament to handle this job.
General David Petraeus was the right man for the new strategy in Iraq in 2007. He wrote the book on counter insurgency and recruited a first class-team to help him with the changes. He also had the support the new Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, to make the needed adjustments.BTW – the COIN Manual is itself a great example of the flexible strategy it advocates. It is a living document, almost a wiki. As new experience is analyzed and digested, it changes and evolves.
The right leadership with the right strategy was essential to success, but causality is never so uncomplicated.
Marines
The USMC was employing the “new paradigm” in Al Anbar before it became part of a new strategy. Marine commanders were well familiar with the theory and practice of counter insurgency, but as importantly the Marines in Al Anbar constituted a learning organization. As experience about what worked and what didn’t passed through the organization, Marines adapted and improved their responses. The Marines have a long history with counter insurgency and working with indigenous forces going back at least to Presley O’Bannon on the shores of Tripoli, where they earned the Mameluke sword Marine officers still carry. And they have been a learning organization all that time.
Another advantage is the Marine’s rotation system. Marines tend to come back to places near their last deployment bringing with them their experience enhanced by the perspective of their time away. Beyond that, when Marines go back they share their experience with their colleagues coming out, both formally and informally. It is hard to envision a better system for learning and adapting. Many of the Marines in Anbar today were in Fallujah or Hadithah during the bad times a couple years ago. More than others, they see the progress and understand what still needs to be done. Those who are here for the first time have heard and internalized the stories.
Beyond that, Marines in Anbar did what they do well: eliminating bad guys & breaking their stuff; making friends in that unique Marine Corps way; adapting & overcoming. When the surge came, the Marines were ready with a receptive environment they helped create.
A Time for Peace
“To everything there is a season and a time for every purpose under heaven … a time for war and a time for peace.” (Ecclesiastes 3:1-8). Early in the conflict, proud and martial Anbaris allied with Al Qaeda and other insurgent forces to fight against the American invaders. It was an understandable, if mistaken response, but by the close of 2006, they were tired of war; they had come to understand the folly of working with retrogrades such as Al Qaeda and their sense of honor was satisfied and slaked by the casualties they had suffered and those they had inflicted. Al Qaeda told them that the Americans would cut and run. Marines don’t. Anbaris learned to respect CF forces. As importantly, they came to understand that CF forces had come to respect them and it was the beginning of a beautiful friendship.
PersistenceYou cannot achieve success if you do not stick around long enough to achieve it. Difficult and unexpected circumstances in Iraq provided many excuses to give up. Leading experts, pundits and even members of the U.S. Congress told it straight-out that the U.S. was defeated. They were wrong, but they could have been right if we had acted on their advice. In other words, a lack of resolve on our part would have made their prophecies self-fulfilling. In the event, the U.S. stayed for the turn around.
Luck
Risk can be controlled but never eliminated and pure uncertainty lurks beyond all the risks we can calculate. Even the most exquisite plans must run the gauntlet of random chance that can devastate a perfect plan or vindicate a dreadful one, which is why we have to analyze the process and not judge strictly by results, as I said above.
Early in the conflict, many things turned out worse than we reasonably anticipated. Now things have changed. Our enemies turned out to be poorly organized. Often incompetently led and ideologically myopic, they made stupid mistakes that turned local populations against them. Fighting an insurgent enemy can be like playing whack-a-mole. It is a frustrating game, but it is easier if the moles are not very clever. I don’t want to take this too far. Many of our opponents are committed, deadly and dangerous and even in small numbers a ruthless adversary can inflict severe suffering, especially if their goal is to attack civilian populations. But these very tactics erode their support.The big piece of good luck is the flip side of some very bad luck for the rest of the world – soaring oil prices. Iraq recovered its previous ability to produce oil almost at exactly the time world oil prices spiked. During Saddam’s time, Iraq earned oil revenues of around $20 billion a year. Experts anticipated revenues at this time of around $35 billion. Last time I heard, they were looking at $80 billion and the number keeps on growing. Oil money lubricates and more and more often Iraqi funds can pay for the needed infrastructure upgrades and improvements in Iraq.
PRTs, ePRTs and the Holistic Approach
Of course I have to talk about my own stuff. You cannot win a modern war by military means alone. COIN Manual says that some of the best weapons do not shoot. Military units have long had Civil Affairs (CA) teams and Commanders’ Emergency Response Funds CERP. These improved conditions for Iraqis and certainly saved many lives. Building on this success and experience in Afghanistan, in November 2005, Secretary of State Rice established Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Iraq. In January 2007, President Bush announced the establishment of embedded PRTs, who work directly with military units such as Regimental Combat Teams.
These were civil-military teams of experts who engaged provincial and local Iraqi officials as well as ordinary Iraqi citizens. Some of their work was old fashioned diplomacy, meeting people, talking to them and listening to concerns. But unlike diplomats in many other contexts, PRT members have access to concrete resources. This development aspect, helping rebuild or in many cases just build for the first time is not entirely new, but putting it together with the interagency team of experts that made up a PRT is breaking some new ground.
PRTs are led by a senior State Foreign Service Officer with a deputy from USAID or a military colonel often as an executive officer. Included on the team are experts on budgeting, industry, law and agriculture, among others.
In rebuilding Iraq, damage from the 2003 invasion is often the least of our problems. Iraq has been in a state of war and/or sanctions for nearly thirty years. Many things decayed during that time and other things that could have been done never were. The Saddam Hussein regime did minimal or no maintenance on the plant & equipment. The whole country suffered the kind of socialist mismanagement seen in former communist regimes, but with an additional layer of sanctions and war. It might have been better if some of the facilities had been destroyed by CF bombs and could be rebuilt from scratch.The physical damage can be repaired more easily than the damage to human capital. The late despotism actively destroyed most aspects of civil society, anything that might insulate the people from the dictates of the state. In former communist Europe, it was possible to find functioning civil organizations, as the fiercest aspects of Stalinism were generations in the past. In Iraq, the destruction was more recent and in some ways more though going. Ironically, sanctions and isolation helped finish the demolition Saddam started. The only viable non-governmental structure left were family/tribes and religion.
Iraq has a significant, if now distant, tradition of reasonably competent officials. PRT experts work to revive this and build on it. Iraqis are responding very quickly, considering the conditions.The most popular expert in Western Al Anbar is our agricultural advisor. Iraq was once a bread basket and still has wonderful soils, available water and a skilled population. Unfortunately, some of the best agricultural lands has been abused for thousands of years. Saddam’s mismanagement exacerbated it, but I digress.
COIN talks about the need to clear, hold & build. CA, CERT & PRTs have helped build physical infrastructure as well as relations. The Iraqi people increasingly have a commitment to their own future and freedom. They will not easily give it up when terrorists come calling.
What They Said Can’t be Done
The U.S., CF and Iraqi accomplishment is astonishing, especially when you consider the near-death experiences of 2006. The Middle East is more secure w/o the murderous Saddam Hussein in power and it is immensely better off than it would have been had we failed in 2006. I believe this will be seen by future historians as a paradigm shifting event. For awhile many people feared that the initiative had passed to the bad guys or at least to the forces of chaos. The apparent disintegration of our position in 2005/6 seemed to confirm that impression. It was never as bad as it seemed or as bad as it was portrayed in the media, but the trend was unmistakable. Today we have come out of the darkness into a new morning. It is still a little too dark to see clearly all the features and it is still full of challenge and fraught with dangers but also full of opportunities. For the last generation and arguably since the end of World War I or the Sykes-Picot accord, this region has been unstable and dangerous. Maybe we can help make the future better than the past.
Today is the 233rd birthday of the U.S. Army. The U.S. would not be the land of the free if it were not also home of the brave.
The chow hall had a better than average meal with roast beef as a tribute. They also had a special cake and a marzipan diorama.
When the Marines had their birthday, we all got two beers. As you recall, we cannot have beer or any alcohol out here in Al Anbar, but the Marines get a two-beer exception on the Corps birthday. No such luck with the Army, unfortunately.
Water: Toilet to Tap and Back
We live in a desert so it should not surprise us to know that we have a water problem. Currently at Al Asad, they suggest that we don’t waste water. It is becoming harder to waste water in some of the bathrooms and showers since the tanks are running dry because they are being replenished less often.
I am not particularly fastidious and I don’t have a job that makes me sweat too much, but I do like to take showers after I run, so I am interested in some kind of solution. If I can predict when water will be available, I can adjust my schedule and use less, but right now I am just confused.
Dennis is helping try to find water up in Rawah. Aquifers are there, but a prolonged drought and a lot of tapping is emptying them faster than they are filling up. If you pump out too much, the whole thing can collapse. The picture above shows a monitoring device. Dennis just uses a watch and sees how long it takes to fill a 5 gallon bucket. This very expensive technology pictured above does the same thing, but it looks better doing it.One partial solution to water shortage is reverse osmosis. Water is forced at high pressure through a filter that takes out almost everything except the pure H2O. It takes a lot of energy to make it work, however and while they say that these systems can go from toilet to tap, most people do not have the stomach for that, even if it works. But we could and do use that water for things like showers and toilets. You are not supposed to use the tap water to brush your teeth.
New Team Member
We got a new team member called John Bauer. We should call him Jack, both because of the 24 series and because otherwise there are too many Johns. He has a lot of experience in city planning, budgeting and capital projects and specifically worked for many years on waste water treatment and water projects in general. His skills are exactly what we need in places like Rutbah. I think he will be a good addition to our team.
Al Asad Weather
We get some dust storms and it is very hot during the afternoon, but I am happy with the weather in general. I have started waking up around 530. It is pleasant around dawn and if it is not dusty I can go running. You have to hunker down during the middle of the day, but it could be worse. Iraqi weather from Mid-October to May is very pleasant, even a little on the cold side in January. November & March are almost perfect, with cool evenings and warm, sunny days, except when there is a lot of dust. Of course, it will get hotter. Even now, temperatures do not dip below the middle 70s even during the coolest part of the day. We have around a 30 degree difference between the highs and lows. When it highs get to be around 120, which they will next month, it will only dip into the 90s and that is pretty hot, even if it is a dry heat.
